Credit: (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)New Jersey’s rancorous gubernatorial election is almost over and residents soon will learn whether voters are willing to put another Democrat in power in the State House to oppose the Trump administration or whether they give the pro-Trump Republican nominee the seat.
It’s unclear whether the governor’s race will influence the Assembly races in all 40 districts, plus the one state Senate contest in the 35th district based in Paterson. It would take a red wave for the GOP to retake control of the Assembly for the first time in a quarter century, as Democrats currently hold 52 of the 80 seats.
No one is expecting a blowout at the top of the ticket. Democrats hold an advantage over Republicans in the state with more than 850,000 registered voters. More than half of the 1.2 million early votes have been cast by Democrats.
“This is a very close election,” — Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University
Republican Jack Ciattarelli is counting on the outsized support Trump got in New Jersey last year to continue in this election and carry him to the State House. Democrat Mikie Sherrill continues to have a small lead in most polls, but her lead tends to be within the margin of error making the race is essentially tied in those surveys.
“This is a very close election,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University.
“It could break for one side or the other and that will depend on a lot of factors … There is a plausible path to victory for both sides, which is why I think there is heightened national interest, national money coming in for both sides, and heightened interest among New Jerseyans.”
Top issues for candidates
For New Jersey residents, the results will answer the question of how big a change happens in the laws enacted, executive orders issued and types of judges nominated. Ciattarelli’s more conservative positions would mean more drastic policy changes than Sherrill, who is a more moderate Democrat than current Gov. Phil Murphy. For the national parties, this election and the governor’s race in Virginia are seen as referenda on President Donald Trump and his policies and could set the tone for next year’s congressional midterms.
As the Sherrill campaign and her supporters have pushed an anti-Trump message, polling showed voters’ top concerns were taxes and affordability. Both candidates have focused on these. Ciattarelli has promised to lower property taxes, income taxes and corporate taxes but it’s unclear where he would find the money to do that, than saying he would be able to find money to cut from the state budget, including for the pet projects that lawmakers tack before voting for it. Sherrill has a six-page “Affordability Agenda” that covers housing, tax relief, child care, health care and food prices but her signature issue is a freeze on utility hikes, though some have questioned her ability to do that.
Credit: (AP Photo/Heather Khalifa)As for other issues, Ciattarelli offers traditional GOP arguments, saying he would be tougher on crime, change the state’s school funding formula and seek to end affordable housing mandates for every town. Sherrill has pledged to improve transparency in government, charged Ciattarelli would seek to limit access to abortions and sought to tie him to Trump’s announcement that he had “terminated” the $16 billion Gateway tunnel project to improve rail transportation between New Jersey and Manhattan and along the entire Amtrak Northeast Corridor.
New Jersey’s governor is considered one of the most powerful in the nation. The governor serves a four-year term and is allowed to seek reelection once. Murphy, a Democrat, is term-limited.
Historical precedents
State voters have not given Democrats more than two terms in a row in 60 years, which Sherrill described last week as one of the “headwinds” she is facing. On the other hand, state voters have not elected a Republican as governor while the GOP controlled the White House in 40 years.
Both campaigns are trying to navigate around those historical precedents. Sherrill has been running largely against Trump, a president polls show is unpopular in New Jersey. Ciattarelli is calling for change in Trenton, where Democrats have controlled the Legislature for 22 years and Murphy’s approval rating is also underwater.
The candidates and independent committees backing them – including ones backed by the national governors associations of each party, which have spent a combined $28.5 million so far — had spent more than $82 million as of Oct. 24, according to an analysis by the state’s campaign finance watchdog. The majority of that has funded television and internet ads. While the candidates’ ads have largely focused on their own strengths and messages, the flood of independent ads have attacked opponents on a host of issues.
Credit: (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)But AdImpact, a firm that tracks political advertising, reported Friday that spending is even higher. It counted $102.3 million spent on ads alone, a little more than half of that supporting Sherrill. Greater Garden State, the independent committee backed by the Democratic Governors Association, is the biggest spender, having laid out more than $34 million, almost double the second biggest advertiser. The ad touting Sherrill’s career in the Navy is the ad that has been run the most. The most often run GOP ads, from Ciattarelli and Restore NJ that is funded by the Republican Governors Association, are the ones selectively editing Sherrill’s remarks on clean energy.
Personal attacks
But the candidates have complained about misrepresentations in the attacks on them. Ciattarelli says Sherrill’s campaign took his answer to a question about the sales tax out of context and Sherrill says Ciattarelli distorted a statement she made about the cost of clean energy.
More unusual is the involvement of lawyers this year. Sherrill’s lawyers demanded the Ciattarelli campaign stop releasing unredacted her Naval Academy records. A Ciattarelli ally received those records and Ciattarelli’s lawyer denied involvement in the release. Ciattarelli has threatened a defamation lawsuit against Sherrill after she said that he had “killed tens of thousands of people” through materials that seemed to downplay the dangers of opioid use that were distributed by his former publishing company.
Both candidates took to buses last week, traveling up and down the state in final attempts to win over voters. Sherrill rallied with a number of prominent national Democrats, culminating in a Saturday night rally with former President Barack Obama in Newark. Ciattarelli touted endorsements from law enforcement and the VAAD and Jewish councils in Ocean County, continued to play up his Italian heritage at pizzerias and campaigned with the governor of Puerto Rico. Ten days ago, he held a telephone rally with Trump, in which the president said Ciattarelli will be “great.”
Targeting voters
Jordana Zeigler of the Democratic Governors Association said during a call with reporters last week that the momentum is on Sherrill’s side. An early $20 million investment allowed for targeted ad buys at a lower cost that has helped to try to overcome the penchant of state voters to switch their party preference for governor every four or eight years. In addition to traditional media, the campaign has targeted new media, influencers and Spanish-language news.
“Preliminary early vote and early vote, advanced balloting data is really showing that that’s paying off, with Democrats right now outpacing our 2021 turnout, which I think we all agree is a very good sign,” she said. “We are clearly not taking our foot off the gas in these last days.”
But an “Interested Parties” memo from the Ciattarelli campaign last week contended the Republican has the momentum. Early Republican turnout has chipped away at any Democratic advantage such that Ciattarelli would need to win just 11% more of the Election Day turnout to become governor – he won it by 12% four years ago, according to the memo from strategist Chris Russell and Eric Arpert, campaign manager.
“It’s easy to see that the Democrats’ vote-by-mail firewall is crumbling,” Russell and Arpert wrote. “Every single county in the state is seeing a net increase in the percentage of Republican vs. Democrat early votes cast compared to this time in 2021.”
Dworkin said it could be the final ground game that makes the difference.
“The money that’s being put into the GOTV, the get out the vote effort, is going to be critical to both these sides, because they’re fighting for every last vote,” he said. “So the more phone calls you can make, the more people you can put on the street to canvass and knock on doors, the bigger the operation you can put together because you have the resources will make a difference.”
Early in-person voting in New Jersey ended Sunday. Those who want a mail-in ballot can still request one from their county clerk’s office up to 3 p.m. Monday. All mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday, Election Day, or placed in a ballot drop box within the voter’s home county by close of polls.
Polls will be open statewide on Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. A voter’s designated polling location is listed on the absentee ballot sent to the voter and it can be found via the state polling place locator.
NJ Spotlight News’ elections page has information on how to vote, as well as a voter guide for the governor’s race and the legislative contests, stories on key issues and the gubernatorial candidates’ stances on them and a host of other information. Find results for all the statewide races on NJ Spotlight News’ homepage Tuesday as soon as they are available.
