Latino voters are emerging as one of the most important — and unpredictable — forces in this year’s governor’s race. Once a reliably Democratic constituency, many Latino voters say they’re looking beyond party labels and focusing instead on who shows up, listens and delivers.

Carlos Medina, who leads the Statewide Hispanic Chamber of Commerce — one of New Jersey’s largest Latino business organizations — says frustration is growing among small business owners fed up with bureaucracy and high costs. Traditionally an independent voter, Medina says that while the Chamber does not endorse candidates, he’s leaning toward Republican Jack Ciattarelli over Democrat Mikie Sherrill.

“I’m leaning toward him for the reasons of showing up. He knows the issues,” Medina said. “Mikie mentioning the opioid stuff was a low blow, bad for business, and desperation. He’s been everywhere the last few years — event after event — and that means a lot. If you can’t do the minimum now, what are you going to do when you’re governor?”

A recent state disparity study found that Hispanic- and Black-owned businesses receive less than 1% of all state contracts. “Latinos generally lean Democratic, but people are tired,” Medina said. “It’s hard to start a business here. We rank among the most difficult states to do business in. People want someone who understands that.”

Ciattarelli, backed by President Donald Trump, has spent years courting Latino leaders. He’s hoping to build on Republican gains from 2024, when Trump nearly doubled his vote share in Paterson and flipped Passaic County for the first time in three decades.

Credit: (Ciattarelli campaign)

Longtime Latina advocate Elisa Charters says that visibility matters.

“When you do the sum total of what each candidate represents — issues that touch the core of Latinos — it’s clear who’s showing up,” Charters said. “Quite frankly, the only time I saw Mikie Sherrill was at the walk to Washington. I’ve been to three events in the past two weeks where she was invited but didn’t attend. He was there. He shows up, he engages.”

Democrats counter that visibility alone isn’t enough. Facing criticism over outreach, Sherrill’s campaign released photos from Hispanic Heritage Month events and a statement defending her record.

“This campaign, Mikie has engaged consistently with the Latino community and shared her vision to lower costs, bolster small businesses, and stand up against illegal attacks from the Trump administration,” the statement said. “Jack Ciattarelli, when asked about the importance of Latino voters, derisively answered ‘next question.’ He’s pledged his loyalty to Trump over the people of New Jersey.”

Sherrill’s allies say Latino voters’ top concerns are economic, not partisan.

The Latino Action Network endorsed Sherrill last week. “Our members met with both campaigns,” said Javier Robles, president of the Latino Action Network. “We found Ciattarelli too closely aligned with Trump and MAGA policies. Seeing ICE entering schools without due process — that’s very problematic.”

Patricia Campos-Medina, vice chair of Sherrill’s campaign and the first Latina to hold that position in a New Jersey gubernatorial race, says the community’s priorities are clear.

“The Latino vote has always been decisive,” she said. “Our top issues are the economy, cost of living, affordable housing, health care, and education. Immigration matters, but it’s not what drives us to the polls. It’s about opportunity — the ability to start a business or buy a home.”

Credit: (X/@MikieSherrill)

Campos-Medina warns that talk of mass deportations isn’t just political rhetoric, it’s an economic threat. “When he [Ciattarelli] says he supports deporting undocumented immigrants, he’s making an economic choice,” she added. “Over 25,000 businesses in New Jersey are owned by undocumented individuals. They generate billions in taxes, paying for services they can’t even access.”

The Ciattarelli campaign maintains that its message is resonating with Latinos who believe the state is on the wrong track.

“Jack’s been clear on illegal immigration — anyone here illegally who’s committed a crime or scammed assistance programs has to go back,” campaign spokesperson Kenny Gonzalez said in a statement. “The majority of Hispanic voters agree. He’s in communities across the state talking about lowering taxes, cutting utility bills, and making the American Dream more attainable.”

Latinos now make up nearly 22% of New Jersey’s population. But voter turnout among people of color often dips in off-year elections, meaning their participation could determine the outcome.

For leaders like Medina, Campos-Medina, and millions of Latino voters across the state, this election isn’t just about party lines — it’s about being seen, heard, and counted.