Credit: (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

Although only one New Jersey congressional race is expected to be close after votes are finally cast Tuesday, the 2024 general election will bring significant change to New Jersey’s congressional delegation regardless of who wins.

The state will have a new U.S. senator for the first time in more than a decade. And in the House of Representatives, new members will be representing South Jersey’s 3rd District and the 9th District in north Jersey.

If Democrat Sue Altman is able to upset freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in the Republican-leaning 7th District, she would be the third new House member. That district, which stretches from the Delaware River in Hunterdon and Warren counties to the Newark Bay in Union County, has 19,000 more registered Republican voters than Democrats. The outcome of this race could help decide the balance of power in the House, where Republicans currently have an eight-seat advantage with three vacancies.

Election Day, with polls open statewide from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m., culminates weeks of early voting by mail and in person in New Jersey. As of end of day Saturday, close to 1.8 million people had cast ballots early, about 27% of all registered voters and more than 38% of all those who voted in the last presidential election in 2020. The number of early in-person votes surpassed mail-in ballots for the first time since New Jersey has permitted early in-person voting. More Democrats have voted early, but that does not say much about who is leading in the races.

“We can only tell the registration of who is voting, not how they voted, which means we have zero idea of what to expect from the voters not affiliated with either party,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. Noting that more Democrats have voted early than Republicans — about 290,000 more as of end of day Saturday — Rasmussen added, “Democrats are ahead. But what we’ll be looking for is whether either or both parties are able to keep up the pace heading into Election Day.”

New Jersey is considered a reliably Democratic state in federal elections. It’s been more than three decades since the state chose a Republican for the White House — George H.W. Bush in 1988 — and more than half a century since voters sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate — Clifford Case in 1972. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to take the state’s 14 electoral college votes. In a Rutgers University Eagleton Poll released last week, 55% of New Jersey registered voters were supporting Harris and 35% were favoring Republican Donald Trump.

The Senate race

Rep. Andy Kim (D-3rd) is favored to win the open Senate seat vacated over the summer by Bob Menendez, who held it for almost 18 years before being convicted on federal corruption charges. George Helmy, Gov. Phil Murphy’s former chief of staff, now holds the seat and Murphy has said he will appoint the winner of Tuesday’s election to fill the remainder of the term. Last week’s Rutgers poll gives Kim a 49% to 26% edge over Republican challenger Curtis Bashaw, a Cape May hotelier.

Bashaw had $4 million in his campaign fund, about half of which he loaned to his campaign. Kim, who got into the race almost immediately after Menendez was indicted last year,  raised almost three times more, or a total of $11.8 million. Independent groups spent about $2 million on the race, most of that in support of Kim’s election. Also running in the race are Libertarian Kenneth Kaplan, Green Party candidate Christina Khalil, Socialist Workers Party candidate Joanne Kuniansky and Patricia Mooneyham, running under the slogan “Vote Better.”

Credit: (AP Photo/Mike Catalini; AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

A three-term representative, Kim traveled the state to boost his name recognition outside his district, which covers parts of Burlington, Mercer and Monmouth counties and used to include part of Ocean County. The major themes of his campaign included bringing integrity back to the office and restoring reproductive choice for women across the country.

Bashaw’s run started in January and since then he has argued that he is not a typical Republican. Bashaw is a gay man who supports abortion rights, although he also said he supported the U.S. Supreme Court decision to let states decide abortion laws.

Issues debated in the Senate race were ones that echoed in House campaigns in the state and around the nation. Democrats stressed support for abortion rights and contended Republicans would enact a national abortion ban. Republicans denied that, focusing their message on an increase in the number of undocumented immigrants during the Biden administration and blaming Biden and the Democrats for last year’s inflationary increases. Democrats said COVID-19 caused the inflation and contend if Donald Trump is reelected, his policies would hurt the economy.

Some districts in the state saw little debate or campaigning, because the state’s congressional district lines have been drawn to favor one party or the other in voter registration, making it almost impossible to flip a seat.

New faces in the House

New Jersey has nine Democrats and three Republicans in the House of Representatives. In 11 of those House districts, the incumbent is favored to win or, when an incumbent isn’t running, the party now holding the seat is likely to keep control. That is the case in the 3rd District, where Democratic state Assemblyman Herb Conaway is expected to succeed Kim. He faces Republican Rajesh Mohan, Green Party candidate Steve Welzer, Libertarian Chris Russomanno and independents Douglas Anthony Wynn and Justin Barbera.

In the 9th District, based in Passaic County, Democratic voter registration gives an edge to state Sen. Nellie Pou, looking to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell, a Democratic representative for 27 years who died in office in August. Due to the timing of Pascrell’s death, the district is currently without a representative. Republican Billy Prempeh is running for the seat for the third time. Libertarian Bruno Pereira and Green Party candidate Benjamin Taylor are also on the ballot.

Credit: (YouTube/Nellie Pou vidoes; McIver campaign)

Every other race features an incumbent expected to win. That includes Democratic Rep. LaMonica McIver, who was sworn into office five weeks ago after winning a special election to fill the seat held by former Rep. Donald Payne Jr., who died in April. McIver won that special election with 81% of the vote and is expected to win a full term to the 10th District, based in parts of Newark and Jersey City. She faces Republican Carmen Bucco, who had also run in the special election, Green Party candidate Jon Carlos Serrano and independents Michelle Middleton, Cynthia Johnson and Donna Weiss.

Wins by McIver and Pou would increase the number of women in the state’s delegation to four. Democrats are hoping to bring that number to five with a win by Altman.

“This could be a record,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. “We have never had four women in Congress before. There is even the potential for five if Sue Altman wins.”

The race to watch

Altman has an uphill climb. In addition to a Republican advantage in voter registration, 34% Republican versus 31% Democratic, Kean is an incumbent and namesake of a popular governor, giving him high name recognition. While Altman outraised Kean by more than $210,000 through Sunday, outside groups have spent far more money to promote him and oppose her. According to the OpenSecrets website that tracks money in politics, the GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund has spent more than $6.6 million and billionaire Elon Musk’s America PAC has spent $1.5 million, largely in anti-Altman ads.

The Democrats’ House Majority PAC came late in the campaign to support Altman, so far spending $3.5 million to boost her and oppose Kean, but only after the only nonpartisan poll on the district earlier this month showed the race to be a statistical tie.

Credit: (AP Photo/Francisco Seco; NJ Spotlight News)

The district long had been Republican but flipped Democratic in 2018 in the New Jersey blue wave midterm following Trump’s election in 2016. Democrat Tom Malinowski held the seat for two terms, beating Kean in 2020, then losing two years ago when he got no support from national Democrats.

The recent poll of the district showed more people in the 7th think Kean’s political views are aligned with the district than Altman’s — 49% versus 35%. Kean also had an advantage on economic issues and immigration, but Altman had a significant advantage on the issue of abortion.

“That’s just one part of the equation,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The other part is how many voters are actually motivated by this issue.”

The 7th has the most registered voters of any district — some 634,000, according to the state Division of Elections. As of end of day Saturday, the largest number of people in the state had voted early there, more than 202,000 or about a third of all those registered in the district. More Democrats had voted than Republicans — 38% vs. 36% — but about 25% of voters were unaffiliated and they could lean toward one party or the other.

If the race is close, as expected, this is one where the outcome will not likely be known Tuesday as election officials continue to tally late-arriving mail-in ballots, ballots that may have to be “cured” because of a problem with the voter’s signature or another issue and any provisional ballots.

While New Jersey’s presidential preference will likely be known Tuesday, many are expecting the national race won’t be called Tuesday as ballot counting in the swing states could take days.

The winners of most, if not all, of the other New Jersey races likely will be known Tuesday.

Other races

These are the other House races on the ballot:

• In the 1st District (Camden County and parts of Burlington and Gloucester counties), incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross faces Republican Theodore “Teddy” Liddell, Green Party candidate Robin Brownfield and independent Austin Johnson.
• In the 2nd District (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Gloucester and Ocean counties), Democrat Joseph Salerno and Green Party candidate Thomas Cannavo are challenging incumbent Republican Jeff Van Drew.
• In the 4th District (parts of Monmouth and Ocean counties), Rep. Chris Smith, a Republican, is facing Democrat Matthew Jenkins, Barry Bendar of the Green Party and Libertarian John Morrison.
• In the 5th District (parts of Bergen, Passaic and Sussex counties), Republican Mary Jo Guinchard, Libertarian James Tosone, Green Party candidate Beau Forte and independent Aamir Arif are challenging Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer.
• In the 6th District (parts of Middlesex and Monmouth counties), Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. faces Republican Scott Fegler, Libertarian Matthew Amitrano, Green Party candidate Herb Tarbous and independent Fahad Akhtar.
• In the 8th District (parts of Essex, Hudson and Union counties), Republican Anthony Valdes, Lea Sherman of the Socialist Workers Party, Green Party candidate Christian Robbins and Labour Party candidate Pablo Olivera are challenging incumbent Democrat Rob Menendez.
• In the 11th District (parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties), Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is facing Republican Joseph Belnome, Green Party candidate Lily Benavides and independent Joshua Lanzara.
• In the 12th District (parts of Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union counties), Republican Darius Mayfield, Libertarian Vic Kaplan and Green Party candidate Kim Meudt are challenging incumbent Democrat Bonnie Watson Coleman.

NJ Spotlight News’ elections page has information on how and where to vote, stories on races and issues and a voter’s guide with information about the Senate and House races and candidates.

Election night coverage will begin at 8 p.m. Tuesday on the NJ Spotlight News website, its YouTube channel and on NJ PBS stations.