New Jersey’s contentious legislative elections are almost over, and while turnout is expected to be light, it hasn’t been for lack of money or campaigning — much of it misleading at best.

Close to 450,000 people already voted by mail over the past five weeks or early in person over the past nine days, but they represent only a fraction of the state’s nearly 6.5 million registrants. Still, with state Senate and Assembly seats topping the ballot, few of those are expected to vote. In 2019, the last time legislative seats were the most prominent races, just 27% of registered voters cast ballots.

Both major parties have been working hard to get their supporters to vote by tomorrow, when polling locations are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. statewide. And that has meant a bombardment of fliers and campaign ads especially in the closest races, including Monmouth, Gloucester and several other counties.

That campaigning covers many topics: “parental rights” in schools, the Murphy administration’s climate policies, recently enacted property-tax rebates and cuts, abortion and even the indictment of Democratic U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez.

As in the past, Democrats this year have dominated the early voting.

They have all been the focus of mailers and ads in the most hotly contested districts across the state, and not always accurately.

For example, one mailer paid for by the Republican State Leadership Committee – New Jersey PAC alleges that “Trenton Democrats” are “Threatening your gas stoves, cars and household appliances.”

The facts: Neither legislators nor Gov. Phil Murphy have presented plans to force people to get rid of their gas stoves, other appliances or cars. The most controversial plan calls for phasing out the sale of new gas-powered cars in the state beginning in 2035.

On the Democrats’ side, the Democratic State Committee has sent out fliers that say Democrats are “cutting property taxes in half for most New Jersey seniors.” The reality: the Democrats’ program known as “Stay NJ” is not scheduled to come online until 2026, at the earliest, and is by no means assured.

Going negative works

“The reason why campaigns run negative ads is because they work,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.

“They are designed to disqualify in the minds of voters, and that’s exactly what they do,” he said. “Are they an accurate reflection of an officeholder’s complete record? Absolutely not, but that’s not the job of an opposing campaign. What I think we have a right to expect from an opposing campaign is that it not actively mislead or make voters less informed.”

There are a few new dynamics in this year’s elections, as well as some familiar ones.

All 40 seats in the Senate and 80 in the Assembly are up for grabs. Democrats have controlled the Legislature for two decades and currently hold 25 seats in the Senate and 46 in the Assembly.

The 2022 redistricting resulted in a new map. A compromise drawn by a bipartisan commission, it moved some veteran lawmakers into different districts and led a large number of legislators to retire.

As in the past, Democrats this year have dominated the early voting — some 62% of people who voted by mail or early in person through last Friday were Democrats, compared with 23% who were Republicans and 14% not affiliated with any party. Republicans have tended to prefer voting on Election Day in the past, although many GOP candidates this year tried to get supporters to vote early, with some even sending an application for a mail-in ballot to registered Republicans.

Registered Democrats continue to outnumber Republicans by about 1 million statewide, but the state’s 2.7 million unaffiliated voters can sway elections in a number of districts expected to be close.

The 2022 redistricting also threw a significant twist into the election.

The new map of districts, a compromise drawn by a bipartisan commission, moved some veteran lawmakers into different districts and led a large number of legislators to retire, rather than face a primary challenge or deal with an unknown set of voters. In all, 33 of 120 seats on the ballot are open, although in a number of cases, an Assembly member is seeking the seat of a retiring senator.

Political observers said the first election after the 2022 redrawing of district lines provides challengers with their best chance at unseating an incumbent, because the new district boundaries bring in new voters less familiar with their current representatives.

Issue overload

This year also may be harder than ever for voters to make an informed choice because of the range of issues candidates are running on — and the number of at-best misleading assertions being made about them.

Perhaps the biggest issue is the one termed “parental rights,” which has become a catchphrase for conservatives upset about a range of controversial school policies, from notification of parents if a child’s gender identity at school is different than at home to challenges to some library books that include content about sex and gender identity. Polls have shown it is potentially a powerful issue to help Republicans win votes and it has gone unchallenged by Democrats in many districts.

For their part, many Democratic candidates instead have countered with a focus on abortion rights. This is the first state election since the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade’s constitutional right to an abortion. Democrats are saying GOP candidates won’t protect the right to choose and would vote to at least roll back abortion protections or even ban the procedure altogether if they are elected.

Both sides have also run attack ads that are deceptive and especially negative, particularly in some southern and Central Jersey districts.

One accuses a candidate of making pornographic movies. Another calls a candidate “sleazy and extreme” based on actions by two brothers and his father. Yet another says the incumbents are responsible for children being taught “graphic gender identity sex lessons for children as young as five.” While opposing candidates in some of these cases put their names to them, independent spending groups are paying for others.

These races are proving expensive, too, with candidates having raised close to $50 million and spent more than $30 million through Oct. 29. Independent spending committees had spent another $17 million trying to influence the closest races, most of that trying to get Democrats elected.

Election Day: A select few

While every state legislative seat is technically up for grabs, incumbents in most districts are expected to win reelection easily. These are the exceptions in four districts:

• Democrats are trying to win back seats in the 3rd District, in Salem and parts of Cumberland and Gloucester counties, which Republican Ed Durr and his running mates won two years ago, shocking the incumbent senator Steve Sweeney, then the president of the Senate. John Burzichelli, a Democrat ousted with Sweeney in 2021, is leading a slate challenging Durr and his running mates.
• Republicans are hoping to turn more of South Jersey red by flipping the neighboring 4th District, which covers parts of Atlantic, Camden and Gloucester counties. Long held by the Democrats, two incumbents are retiring, leaving Assemblyman Paul Moriarty to seek the Senate seat with two newcomers. They face a slate led by Republican Chris Del Borrello, a former Washington Township councilman. This race is also noteworthy for the allegations that two independents running as “Conservatives South Jersey” are actually “phantom candidates” propped up by Democrats to try to take support away from the GOP ticket. On Friday, a Superior Court judge barred an independent committee backing the conservatives from spending more money in the race.
• The race in Monmouth County’s 11th District, which already has split representation, is believed to be very tight. Democratic Sen. Vin Gopal is fighting to keep his seat and trying to bring in Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul. The Assembly incumbents, Republicans Kim Eulner and Marilyn Piperno, are defending their seats and hoping their running mate, Stephen Dnistrian, will defeat Gopal.
• The Senate race in the 16th District that stretches from Princeton through Somerset, South Brunswick and up into High Bridge in Hunterdon County is a rematch of 2021, with former Republican Rep. Mike Pappas challenging Democratic incumbent Andrew Zwicker. Zwicker is running with Assemblyman Roy Freiman and Mitchelle Drulis, while Grace Zhang and Ross Traphagen round out the GOP ticket.

The Republican Party is also concentrating on defending the 2nd District in Atlantic County and the 8th stretching through parts of Atlantic and Burlington counties and trying to challenge in the 14th straddling Mercer and Middlesex counties, as well as the 36th and 38th, both based in Bergen County. Democrat Christine Clarke heads a ticket hoping to knock off Senate Minority Leader Anthony Bucco and the Assembly Republicans in the 25th District in Morris and Passaic counties.

Voters can find out more about legislative elections in the NJ Voter Guide, a collaboration of journalists throughout the state. NJ Spotlight News’ elections page has more information about races, as well as how to find polling locations, which will be open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.