The contest for one of New Jersey’s U.S. Senate seats has been under way for months and is likely to dominate the state’s political scene at least through June. Come fall, the spotlight is expected to move to a congressional seat in Central Jersey that has the potential to flip and help Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives.

U.S. Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s 7th District race is going to be one of the most watched nationally in this year’s congressional elections. Kean, a Republican, retook the seat for his party after the 2021 redrawing of the congressional map made that district more favorable to the GOP. But President Joe Biden would have won the district in its current configuration in 2020 by almost four points. If Biden wins it again this year, it’s possible his coattails could bring a Democrat into the House, although tepid support among Democrats for the president may help Kean keep the seat.

The Cook Political Report calls the race in the 7th a toss-up, while Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still give Kean an edge.

It’s unclear who Kean’s opponent may be. So far three Democrats are in the race: Sue Altman, the former director of the New Jersey Working Families Party; Jason Blazakis, a former U.S. State Department official; and Greg Vartan, the municipal council president in Summit. Altman leads the group in fundraising as of the end of September, having taken in more than $500,000.

But Kean had $1.77 million in the bank at the same point and he has already been getting support from the independent spending committee Governing Majority Education Fund, which is backing Republicans in swing districts across the country. The group has already sent out at least three mailers to voters in the district, boosting Kean for voting to support troops, border security and law enforcement, as well as not raising taxes and recovering unspent COVID-19 emergency funds.

Which Democrat?

Normally a U.S. Senate seat on the ballot would be the top race in the general election, but in a state that has not elected a Republican to the upper house of Congress in more than a half-century, the expectation is that the seat will remain in Democratic hands. The bigger question is who will be that Democrat?

At the moment, Tammy Murphy, the wife of Gov. Phil Murphy, appears to have an advantage, having won the endorsement of the Democratic parties or chairs in the counties with the most Democrats. Tammy Murphy’s winning of the coveted county line, which has been shown to give candidates a big edge, has brought renewed calls for the parties to abolish it here, the only state where it is used. But some say no one should count out her main opponent, U.S. Rep. Andy Kim (D-3rd) yet.

Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship, noted that when Phil Murphy won his first governor’s race in 2017, he did so with just 48% of the vote in a field of six candidates. And he had the party line in every county.

“When you have an advantage in money to get your message out, and an advantage in organizational support, that should be enough” to win, Dworkin said. “But it’s not always … There’s a whole campaign to be run here. In addition to money and the line, I think some key factors will be personality and message and brand.”

And if current incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez decides to seek reelection, will he pull supporters from one of the other candidates? Or could he pull off the unthinkable and win again despite facing federal corruption charges that keep coming – a revised indictment released Tuesday alleges that he also helped Qatar, in addition to Egypt – and that have led virtually all of the state’s major Democratic leaders to call for his resignation? Menendez denies the charges.

“It’s hard to see a path to victory for Sen. Menendez,” Dworkin said. “But that doesn’t mean he couldn’t play the spoiler if he chose to. The real question, therefore, is for whom would he be spoiling?”

Activist Lawrence Hamm is also running and others, most notably Patricia Campos-Medina, executive director of the Worker Institute at Cornell University’s ILR School, may also get into the race, which could further dilute any single candidate’s support.

So far, the Republican field is led by Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, with a number of other candidates having declared.

Other races

Two other primaries are likely to be especially significant.

Both parties have contests in the 3rd District, covering parts of Burlington, Mercer and Monmouth counties, where Kim is giving up his seat to run for the Senate.

The Republican primary field so far features Shirley Maia-Cusick, an immigration lawyer, against Gregory Sobocinski, an investment advisor. On the Democratic side, Assembly members Herb Conaway and Carol Murphy, who represent the same 7th state legislative district, are vying for the nomination.

Sabato rates this rate as leaning Democrat, while the Cook Political Report calls this likely to stay Democratic. Dworkin said redistricting made this a much bluer district and any Republican will have a tough time winning.

The other primary will decide who represents the heavily Democratic 8th District based in Hudson County, where Rep. Rob Menendez, the son of the senator, had an easy win in 2022 but faces a potentially strong primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Still, Bhalla faces an uphill battle running against the incumbent, who has the backing of the Democratic establishment in Hudson County, the lion’s share of the district.

No surprises are expected in the other races — at least at the moment — because the way congressional district boundaries have been drawn heavily favors the Democratic candidate in seven other districts and Republicans in the remaining two. Currently, N.J.’s House delegation has nine Democrats and three Republicans.

All of New Jersey’s congressional delegation is back on the ballot in 2024. So what can we expect? NJ Spotlight News Senior Writer and Projects Editor Colleen O’Dea breaks it all down.