The new congressional map drawn by Democrats was tested for the first time Tuesday and it held. The map made nine Democratic districts and nine Democrats won.

It also appeared to hold for the odd man out; thanks to that map, incumbent Rep. Tom Malinowski lost. His district had 12,000 more Democrats than Republicans before the map; on Tuesday it had 16,800 more Republicans than Democrats.

On Wednesday, Malinowski conceded his 7th District race to Republican Tom Kean Jr., after trailing by about 14,000 votes as of midday.

Meanwhile, Josh Gottheimer, Mikie Sherrill and Bonnie Watson Coleman, all incumbent Democrats in districts surrounding Malinowski’s, won with each getting 100,000 more votes and counting than their Republican rivals.

Could Democrats have tweaked the map to give Malinowski a better chance at winning, while still protecting Gottheimer, Sherrill and Watson Coleman?

The answer is yes, but due to the complexities of the redistricting process that could have meant the redistricting commission’s tiebreaker might have chosen a Republican map.

Sacrificing the 7th?

“Democrats certainly could have drawn a map that created 10 safe seats, but the odds of that map being adopted by the tie-breaker would have been hard and I suspect they felt that they could have risked other seats if they didn’t offer to sacrifice at least one,” said Julie Roginsky, a longtime Democratic strategist. “It’s a shame because Tom Malinowski is an outstanding member of Congress and if the district looked like it had two years ago, he would have won.”

The congressional redistricting commission starts out with six Democrats and six Republicans. When they can’t agree  — and they have not so far in this system — the New Jersey Supreme Court’s chief justice appoints a tiebreaker. That 13th member can try to get the sides to compromise, and if they don’t chooses a map submitted by each party. Last year, the tiebreaker chose the Democrats’ map.

While the map presented by the Democratic members of the redistricting commission bolstered Gottheimer and Sherrill, it did so at least in part at the expense of Malinowski.

“Each side can do an even more ideal map for their side … but you’ve got to get it passed,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University. “Could they have done better? Yes, on paper. I’m just not sure how it would have played out.”

Democrats were concerned with protecting their incumbents in the closest races. Three of them, Malinowski, Kim and Sherrill, had won in traditionally Republican districts in the 2018 midterms, in large part driven by anti-Trump sentiment. The fourth, Gottheimer, had ousted a GOP incumbent two years earlier. The 3rd, 5th and 11th all were redrawn to include more towns friendly to Democrats. But while the map presented by the Democratic members of the redistricting commission bolstered Gottheimer and Sherrill, it did so at least in part at the expense of Malinowski.

Despite this favorable map, Democrats were uneasy as Election Day dawned. With inflation still very much on the minds of voters, gas prices on the rise and an unpopular president leading the party, the political action committee of House Democrats pumped another $4 million into races here to try to ensure wins.

An early night

All but Malinowski’s race were called before 11:30 p.m. Tuesday, and his was still looking competitive. Ultimately, Kim, Gottheimer and Sherrill are likely to win by 10% or more; Sherrill’s margin as of midday Wednesday was close to 17%, or more than 42,000 votes.

But there was no way for the mapmakers to know these results when they submitted their final proposal to the tiebreaker 11 months ago. Ultimately, the final map gave Malinowski more of Warren County and some of Sussex, both Republican strongholds, while he lost Millburn and some Democratic towns in Union and Morris counties.

Malinowski attributed his loss mostly to that change in the district.

“While we did as well or better than in 2020 in the communities I have represented these last four years, and I expect the results to tighten further as all votes are counted, the new district proved too much of a hurdle to overcome,” Malinowski said in a statement Wednesday after conceding. At his election night event Tuesday, he told his supporters, “We would have been winning without question in that original district, and even in this district, with 30,000 additional Republican voters that were added last December, here we are, still standing.”

‘I don’t think this loss was a surprise for the Democrats. They knew that they were throwing Malinowski to the wolves.’ — Dan Cassino, Fairleigh Dickinson University

Malinowski also noted that Republicans have spent millions of dollars in negative ads against him — almost $6 million in this election, compared with $1.5 million that Democrats and the new Moderate Party spent opposing Kean. In a statement issued Wednesday, the Congressional Leadership Fund controlled by House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of California, congratulated Kean and took credit for helping elect him by spending $4.6 million on its own on negative ads.

Incumbents in Congress typically have an edge in future elections.

“The sacrifice (of Malinowski) here may now mean, however, that the 7th will be in Republicans’ hands for a while — as long as Kean plays to the middle, shows some kind of hard work on top issues like taxes, and depending on what happens on the national stage with the Trump wing of the party and 2024,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.

Still, others say Kean may have to fight to stay in office. When Malinowski won against Kean in 2018, there were about 7,000 more Republicans than Democrats. And the district chose Biden over Trump in 2020 by about 4 percentage points.

“I don’t think this loss was a surprise for the Democrats. They knew that they were throwing Malinowski to the wolves, and it looks like it’ll be tighter than a lot of Democrats had thought it would be,” said Dan Cassino, a Fairleigh Dickinson University professor of government and politics and director of the FDU Poll. “That said, I wouldn’t count this as a safe seat for Kean by any stretch. Incumbents are most vulnerable the first time they’re up for reelection, and in 2024, there are likely to be 100,000 voters at the polls in the district who weren’t there yesterday.”

New Jersey Citizen Action, which was one of a coalition of organizations that went door to door, made phone calls and texted voters in an effort to reelect Malinowski and Kim, is one group that vowed to help flip the 7th back in Democrats’ favor in the next election.

“Redistricting made Congressman Tom Malinowski’s reelection difficult, despite his stellar record of representing and connecting with the people of his district,” said Dena Mottola Jaborska, the group’s executive director. “We plan to make this district a priority for our movement in the next election cycle.”