Credit: (House Television via AP; AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File; Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP; Stephanie Barone)

Candidates are in a last dash to get votes, with New Jersey Republicans hoping to recapture at least some of the seats they lost in the last midterms and Democrats trying to keep control of the U.S. House of Representatives, or minimize their losses.

The most recent poll from Stockton University said inflation and the economy were at the top of voters’ minds, but abortion also ranked high. That could help Democrats who have been stressing their support for abortion rights, calling their opponents’ views extreme or out of touch. Republicans have shifted their focus to crime, saying Democrats are soft on the issue or anti-cop, hoping that resonates with voters.

Another poll, by Fairleigh Dickinson University, found abortion is motivating some voters. “The big question in this election has been about whether abortion is going to mobilize people who otherwise don’t turn up in midterms,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics and director of the poll. “In New Jersey, the answer is yes, even if the effect isn’t as big as Democrats might have been hoping for.”

More than 600,000 New Jerseyans have already voted early, either in person or by mail, as of Thursday, which is a higher turnout than last year but that was a gubernatorial election, which typically has a lower turnout. While more Democrats than Republicans vote early, Stockton said Republicans were much more eager to vote than Democrats — 70% vs 54%. That could mean a Republican wave like the one Democrats rode in 2018, when four Democrats flipped formerly Republican districts amid anti-Trump sentiments.

The consequences of redistricting

The new congressional district map, crafted by Democrats, was designed to favor nine of the state’s 10 incumbent House Democrats. But if Republicans vote in greater numbers and unaffiliated voters choose GOP candidates, there could be many surprise results Tuesday night or later, as it is likely close races may be decided only after all mail-in and provisional ballots are counted days later.

There has been no independent polling in the state’s most competitive districts, the 3rd, 5th, 7th and 11th, but analysts at political rating sites have made projections for some of those races. Those analysts say Rep. Tom  Malinowski is likely to lose in the 7th District to Tom Kean Jr., the former Republican state senator making his fourth try for a seat in Congress. Reps. Josh Gottheimer in the 5th and Mikie Sherrill in the 11th are cast as likely winners and Rep. Andy Kim’s 3rd District either likely or leaning Democratic, depending on the rating site.

“With the economy and inflation increasing topping the polls as voters’ biggest concerns, New Jersey Democrats should perhaps take a page from last year’s gubernatorial to remember how important bread-and-butter issues became to voters in that home stretch,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. “It all becomes a game of who gets the most voters to turn out with their messaging. Even if abortion has somewhat faded from the spotlight, those issue voters may nevertheless be a powerful voting bloc to turn out for Democrats.”

Malinowski versus Kean

Malinowski’s race has drawn the most attention in the state. Malinowksi, a two-term incumbent, like all of the state’s Democratic House members, has largely supported the priorities of the Democratic majority and President Joe Biden. He has tried to paint Kean as a Trump and MAGA supporter and emphasized that Kean backs some abortion restrictions.

Kean publicly says that restriction would be after 20 weeks of pregnancy, though a hidden page on his website calls him a “fierce defender of the sanctity of life, fighting every step of the way to protect the unborn.”

Kean and Republican groups have spent more than $5.5 million on anti-Malinowski ads that blame him for high inflation, point to an ethics investigation Malinowski faced for not reporting stock trades in time and, most recently, call him soft on crime. Kean has all but avoided mainstream New Jersey media and campaigned largely in private, while Malinowski has done numerous interviews and public events. The two debated three times. Two of the state’s largest news organizations have endorsed Malinowski.

In 2018, Malinowski unseated Republican Leonard Lance, who had spent a decade in the House. At the time, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by about 9,000 in the 7th but the district’s wealthy, moderate Republicans had rejected Trump. By the 2020 presidential election, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 10,000 and Malinowski beat Kean by about 5,000 votes. Today the district has 17,000 more Republicans than Democrats.

Malinowski had a full weekend of campaigning, at seven events in five different counties, and he is planning to make four more stops Monday. The Kean campaign did not release a schedule of public events, although the candidate reportedly was to have attended an invite-only breakfast in Morris County Sunday.

Kim versus Healey

When Kim beat incumbent Tom MacArthur in 2018, it was in a district comprised of most of Burlington and much of Ocean counties, where Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 16,000 but the unaffiliated voters trended more conservative. In the redistricting, the 3rd District traded parts of Monmouth and Mercer counties for Ocean County and Democrats are now the plurality, outnumbering both Republicans — by 62,000 — and the unaffiliated. For most of this election season, rating sites have called this a likely win for Kim, but last week the Cook Political Report downgraded it to leaning Democratic. The other three raters — Inside Elections, 538 and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball — list Kim as the likely winner.

David Wasserman, a senior editor at Cook Political Report, wrote that Democrats in districts Biden won easily in 2020 in Democratic states without statewide competitive races to drive turnout are the ones now in most trouble and Kim is among them. Republican messaging on inflation and crime is having an impact in these places, he added.

Republican Bob Healey ran an ad embracing his former time playing in a rock band and saying he would fight inflation and support police. Kim has released ads touting his vote in Congress to cap senior prescription costs and criticizing Healey’s opposition to abortion. A political group funded largely by Healey’s mother has spent more than $2 million opposing Kim and Healey has loaned his own campaign more than $2 million, about half of his total campaign account as of Oct. 19, according to data from the Federal Election Commission. Kim had raised $6.5 million and still had $1.9 million in the bank as of mid-October, while Healey had just $228,000.

Gottheimer, Sherrill, the rest

Democrats Josh Gottheimer, the three-term incumbent in the 5th, and Mikie Sherrill, who flipped the 11th four years ago, are both favored to win. Their districts got even more Democratic in redistricting. But one wouldn’t know that from their ads, as both are running aggressively and hitting hard at their opponents — Frank Pallotta in the 5th and Paul DeGroot in the 11th — on their abortion stances. Gottheimer’s $13.7 million makes him one of the best-financed House candidates in the nation, but he is also benefiting from nearly $2 million spent by the House Majority PAC in anti-Pallotta ads. Sherrill has spent 14 times more than DeGroot and has gotten the financial backing of a number of outside spending groups, including VotVets.org, which has spent $2 million in ads opposing DeGroot.

In other congressional matchups throughout the state:

In the 1st District centered in Camden, Democratic Rep. Donald Norcross faces a rematch against Republican Claire Gustafson.

In the southernmost 2nd District, Democrat-turned-Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew faces Tim Alexander, this year’s Democratic nominee.

In the 4th District along the Shore, longest-serving House member Chris Smith, a Republican, faces Democrat Matthew Jenkins.

In the 6th District in central Jersey, Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone faces Republican Susan Kiley.

Vying for the open seat in the 8th District based in Hudson County are Democrat Rob Menendez, son of U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, and Republican Marcos Arroyo.

In the 9th District in urban north Jersey, Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. faces a rematch against Republican Billy Prempeh.

In the 10th District based in Newark, Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. faces Republican David Pinckney.

In the 12th District, which stretches from Union County to Mercer, Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman faces Republican Darius Mayfield.

Early voting has now ended but people can still mail in ballots or place them in one of the secure drop boxes around their counties. On Tuesday, Election Day, polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.

For more on the candidates, their views and details about the districts, go to NJ Spotlight News and its NJ Decides 2022 page.

NJ Spotlight News will post results Tuesday, with live election night coverage beginning at 8 p.m. All coverage will be streamed throughout the night on MyNJPBS.org/live, NJSpotlightNews.org, the NJ Spotlight News YouTube channel, Facebook page and Twitter feed.