With an important midterm election underway, New Jersey voters are making their choices at a time when the state’s monthly unemployment rate has dropped to near historic lows.

The strong jobs numbers, combined with the recent news that the nation’s gross domestic product, or GDP, grew ahead of expectations during the past quarter, have been welcomed by Democrats, who currently hold a majority of New Jersey’s congressional seats.

“Our economy has created 10 million jobs, unemployment is at a 50-year low and U.S. manufacturing is booming,” President Joe Biden said on social media in response to the latest GDP report.

However, for the past several weeks, it’s been the Republicans on the offensive when it comes to talking about the state of the economy.

Playing a leading role in the GOP’s messaging are concerns about a national inflation rate that has routinely been running at or near historic highs in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. And while gas prices in New Jersey have been dropping in recent months despite an ongoing overseas war, they remain higher on average than the prices motorists were paying a year ago.

“We have inflation, food prices, gas prices … How does a family make ends meet?” asked Republican challenger Paul DeGroot during his recent debate with U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-11th) at Drew University.

Pocketbook politics

As Democrats and Republicans are now making their final pitches, just how good New Jersey residents feel about the economy, as well as other pocketbook issues like taxes and inflation, will likely play a big role in determining which party comes out ahead after all the votes are counted.

The economy was the top concern among a group of New Jersey voters surveyed last month by the Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

Even as he discussed economic issues during an in-person debate in Clark several weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-7th) pivoted to the abortion issue as he sought to score points against Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr.

Most respondents also said they believe the nation is currently “on the wrong track,” which suggests Republicans have a big opening. Yet the same poll also indicated that respondents generically preferred a Democratic representative in Congress over Republicans.

To be sure, the party that holds the White House typically loses ground in Congress during midterm elections. This year, if Democrats give up too much ground, they will lose the U.S. House of Representatives. And while none of New Jersey’s U.S. senators are up for reelection this year, control of a divided U.S. Senate is at stake nationally.

A referendum … but on what?

A major U.S. Supreme Court ruling that earlier this year upset the status quo on abortion — no longer guaranteeing it as a protected right throughout the nation — gave Democrats some hope that the 2022 midterms would turn into more than just a referendum on Biden and his party’s handling of the economy.

Indeed, even as he discussed economic issues during an in-person debate in Clark several weeks ago, U.S. Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-7th) pivoted to the abortion issue as he sought to score points against Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., who has decried rising grocery bills in campaign ads.

“His party in Washington (and) the ascendant leaders of his party in Washington, have put forward absolutely no plan to deal with this economic situation, but they do have a very specific plan for banning abortion,” Malinowski said of Kean.

And in the face of Kean’s repeated attacks on inflation, which included accusations of overspending on pandemic relief by the Democratic majority in Congress, Malinowski sought to bring attention to the pandemic and the blow that it dealt the national economy after former President Donald Trump initially downplayed it as a major concern.

“Every single economist in America was telling us, ‘Do something big,’ and had we not done so, this country, today, would be in a Great Depression. Those jobs would not have come back,” Malinowski said during the event hosted by the Gateway Regional Chamber of Commerce.

When it comes to jobs, the U.S. unemployment rate in September was 3.5%, a full percentage point lower than the jobless average measured in the country a year ago. Looking back a little further, the September 2022 unemployment rate was more than three percentage points lower than when Biden took over for Trump in early 2021.

Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the unemployment rate in September 2022 was lower than the nation’s, at 3.3%.

In the chips

For the past several weeks, Biden and other Democrats have been trying to show how major legislative victories on issues including infrastructure investment and computer-chip manufacturing are bolstering the economy and helping to drive job growth.

Many Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), have also been highlighting how price gouging by energy companies and other big corporations is driving inflation.

The results of the recent Rutgers-Eagleton poll also indicate New Jersey voters have been harboring concerns about inflation and the economy.

But during a recent appearance on NJ Spotlight News’ “Election Exchange” podcast, Republican Bob Healey, who is seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Andy Kim (D-3rd), was also on offense while speaking about inflation. He suggested spending reductions he and other Republicans favor will be an antidote.

“It is the number one thing that I hear when I travel through the district,” Healey said. “What are you going to do about my grocery bill, what are you going to do about my gas bill?”

“Inflation is affecting everybody right now,” he said.

Although it only represents one snapshot in time, the results of the recent Rutgers-Eagleton poll also indicate New Jersey voters have been harboring concerns about inflation and the economy. Yet the same poll also found high on voters’ list of concerns were reproductive rights and women’s issues.

Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, said during a recent interview with NJ Spotlight News that it will likely come down to turnout, and which party can motivate the most voters who favor their candidates to cast ballots.

“It’s really kind of who can mobilize their base, and those voters in the middle, the most, based on all of the issues in the political atmosphere right now, like the economy and abortion,” Koning said.