The omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading quickly nationwide — with COVID-19 infections related to it doubling roughly every two days. Public health leaders in New Jersey are now bracing for a likely surge in new COVID-19 diagnoses, on top of the rising caseload attributed to the existing delta variant. By early next month, omicron could cause the bulk of the state’s cases, experts note.
The good news is the omicron strain appears far less deadly than delta, according to findings in South Africa, which first identified the variant in late November. But omicron is at least three times more transmissible than delta, studies suggest, and widespread infection could drive up the number of hospitalizations and deaths overall.
‘The relative proportion of omicron versus delta is changing day by day, with omicron likely to take over soon. The question then becomes how much less severe is it versus how much more transmissible.’
“We are still in the middle of a delta wave,” driven by declining vaccine immunity and indoor gatherings, said Dr. Shereef Elnahal, president and CEO of University Hospital in Newark, which has been on the front lines of New Jersey’s pandemic fight. COVID-19 cases at University Hospital have doubled in recent weeks, he said, and nearly half of those patients are fully vaccinated, but had not received booster shots.
“Now omicron is also likely spreading in our community and the relative proportion of omicron versus delta is changing day by day, with omicron likely to take over soon,” Elnahal said, citing federal projections that indicate it could be the dominant variant by early January. “The question then becomes, though, how much less severe is it versus how much more transmissible. Because if those are the same proportions, you may still get the same demands on the health care system.”
Many cases may be undetected
As of Friday, New Jersey had identified four COVID-19 cases related to omicron — three among state residents and one involving a visitor from Georgia who had traveled to South Africa — but labs are screening less than 10% of the state’s coronavirus tests, meaning many variant-cases may remain undetected. Nearly 7,400 new COVID-19 cases were reported Friday, and more than 1,300 people were hospitalized as a result, according to state figures.
Gov. Phil Murphy and state health officials continued to urge residents to get booster shots, which are shown to double people’s immunity against omicron. More than 6.1 million New Jerseyans are fully vaccinated, but the efficacy of those shots dwindles, and by six months, they provide 35% protection against infection from the new variant, studies suggest. Boosters — which 1.8 million residents have now received — can push protection back up to 75%.
Predictive models published last week by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest the country could see more than 1 million new COVID-19 diagnoses and at least 15,000 hospitalizations each day by late December. Deaths could top 13,000 a week nationwide. Omicron has now been found in at least three dozen states.
Six months after vaccination shots, they provide 35% protection against infection from the new variant, studies suggest. Boosters can push protection back up to 75%.
Those figures raised concerns about testing capacity, with federal officials worried there could be public demand for as many as 5 million COVID-19 tests daily, according to reports. Currently, about 1.6 million tests are provided each day; in New Jersey, more than 70,000 people were screened in a single day last week.
Looking ahead a few weeks, the CDC modeling indicates that New Jersey could see 400 COVID-19 patients hospitalized each day by late December, and at least 250 residents could die just in the week following Christmas. State-level daily case data from the CDC was more elusive, but the state Department of Health said last week that new diagnoses could soar to 10,000 a day by early January if the spread increases significantly — and that model did not factor in omicron.
Several published academic studies on omicron — which have not been peer-reviewed — found the variant replicates itself quickly in the body’s airways, as much as 70 times faster than the delta variant reproduces. But the new strain also causes less severe lung infection, researchers found.
“We still need to learn a lot more about the severity of omicron,” said Elnahal, a former state health commissioner. “However, the more we do learn out of South Africa, the more encouraging it gets.” Early data from there indicates hospitalizations due to delta are tenfold the rate caused by omicron — 19% of the cases, versus 1.9% — although South Africa has a younger, more resilient population than the U.S., he said.
“But with the speed of cases increasing like this it is very likely that omicron is getting to be a bigger and bigger part of the picture,” Elnahal said.
