COVID-19 cases continue to rise in New Jersey. Related hospitalizations are also going up, with more patients requiring ventilators and other critical care measures.
State models predict hospitalizations will more than double by early January, if the rate of spread of other public health metrics remains stable, health officials said Monday. If coronavirus viral spread grows, they said the need for hospital resources could increase 200% before an early 2022 peak. And that doesn’t account for the new, more transmissible omicron variant.
This backdrop of data — along with new studies on the dwindling efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines over time and the benefits of booster shots — has led New Jersey officials to launch a public campaign to encourage boosters.
Wednesday is Boost NJ Day, with walk-in appointments at vaccination clinics, longer operating hours and other efforts to expand access. Officials also opened a new mega-site Monday in Somerset County, inside the former Lord & Taylor store at the Bridgewater Commons mall. In addition, state health officials have been talking to health care systems, nursing homes and other high-risk groups to promote booster shots.
“We continue to see pickup in the rates of boosters being administered, and we strongly encourage everyone who is eligible to get their booster,” Gov. Phil Murphy said Monday at his weekly pandemic media briefing. “But while the rates have picked up,” he continued, “it’s not nearly at the level that we need it to get at.”
About 1/3 of those eligible have had booster
More than 6.1 million New Jerseyans received their initial immunizations, according to state data, and 1.7 million have also been boosted, about 36% of those now eligible. Booster shots are available to anyone age 16 and over who received their initial doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines at least six months ago, or those who got the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine two or more months previous.
Researchers at the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation reported that, as of late November, nearly one in four fully vaccinated adults nationwide had already received a booster — and that was before federal regulators greatly expanded booster eligibility. Close to 40% of those surveyed said they would “definitely get” a booster once it was officially recommended and almost 20% said they “probably would” get the additional shot. One in four are unlikely — or are refusing — to get any COVID-19 vaccines, KFF said it learned.
Murphy and Department of Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli stressed that while the omicron variant is in the news and spreading — New Jersey has confirmed two cases so far — the delta variant remains dominant here and is driving the current increase in COVID-19 cases. Nationwide, omicron accounts for about 3% of COVID-19 cases, according to federal officials, but it makes up closer to 13% in the New York City region.
The latest DOH modeling suggests hospitalizations could increase to 3,500 in early January, if the current situation continues, but could swell closer to 5,000 if the viral spread increases, Persichilli said Monday. Those models are based on the prevalence of the delta variant, as DOH said at this point omicron has not been factored into the predictive modeling it conducts to help understand where COVID-19 trends will lead.
On Monday, 1,650 patients were hospitalized with COVID-19, which Persichilli said was up more than 80% over two weeks. Eight in 10 of these patients are unvaccinated, she said, while the other 20% — who are immunized — underscore the concern about declining immunity to the initial shots.
Holiday surge, waning immunity
“If you look at our epidemic curve, we’re seeing an increase in the last several weeks, probably due to a combination of not only the holiday surge but also the fact that we know that there is some waning immunity” in the vaccines, said Dr. Christina Tan, the state’s epidemiologist, at the Monday briefing. “The importance of getting that booster shot is really critical for us to get ahead of the epidemic curve continuing to go up.”
New data from the United Kingdom and Israel indicate that immunity from the first round of shots can decline to 35% after six months, when tested against omicron, which is several times more contagious than delta. Boosters can elevate protection to 75% against even mild forms of COVID-19 caused by omicron and can provide even higher immunity against severe disease and death, according to CNBC and other reports. Experts say these early, real-world studies should be treated with some caution, but the data echo findings the Pfizer drug company reported last week.
Testing is also critical to controlling spread of COVID-19, Persichilli said, something that can be done at multiple government-run sites, in drugstores and through community organizations. On Monday she announced the state had partnered with Vault Medical Services to create a free, order-online, take-at-home COVID-19 test that residents can send to a lab via UPS. The process, which takes several days to produce results, calls for users to log onto a video chat with a Vault clinician who will guide them through the procedure and answer questions.
“With cases rising and holiday gatherings and travel, you want to protect yourself, especially if you are not feeling well or believe you may have been exposed, even if you don’t have any symptoms,” Persichilli said. “We also need residents to take common-sense preventive health measures like masking, physical distancing, handwashing, staying home when you are sick.”
