Credit: (Map by Banisch Associates)New Jersey could see 61,000 new affordable housing units built over the next decade and another 32,000 existing low-cost units upgraded. But a lot could depend on local housing plans and who becomes the next governor.
More than three-quarters of the state’s municipalities have filed resolutions certifying their affordable housing obligations, the number of units towns say meet legal requirements, with the new state Affordable Housing Dispute Resolution Program as of Friday.
The deadline was Jan. 31 but a few towns filed documents late. In these resolutions, local officials certified the number of housing units that need renovating and the number they will include in local zoning laws to meet future needs.
An NJ Spotlight News analysis of the resolutions found 441 governing bodies set their housing obligations over the next decade at more than 61,000 units, close to 13,000 fewer than the number the state Department of Community Affairs had calculated for those communities. The 123 municipalities that did not file resolutions had state-estimated housing needs of more than 6,000 dwellings.
Where it started
Fifty years, ago the state Supreme Court issued its first “Mount Laurel” decision that, along with subsequent rulings and the 1985 Fair Housing Act, established the requirement that municipalities provide for their fair share of the affordable housing needed in six regions in the state. Last year, Gov. Phil Murphy signed revisions to the law that created the current system, in which the DCA suggests housing needs for every municipality, which they can accept, modify or ignore. Towns that don’t follow the law could face “builder’s remedy” lawsuits that could require them to build high-density developments to meet their housing needs.
By law, housing needs are to be recalculated every 10 years. The new law will govern the new housing cycle, known as the 4th Round, that begins in July. About 350 municipalities settled housing agreements in the current or 3rd Round. Almost 100 more filed resolutions to participate in the new housing process that will stretch through 2035.
More than half the towns that filed resolutions accepted the Department of Community Affairs’ estimates. Nearly all of the rest suggested smaller housing obligations.
“It’s encouraging that the vast majority of municipalities, many of whom supported the new law’s passage, are moving forward with creating homes under the new law,” said Adam Gordon, executive director of the Fair Share Housing Center, which has been the major force behind low-income housing efforts in the state for decades.
Just because a town agreed to a prospective obligation of 1,000 affordable housing units — the maximum for any community — doesn’t mean all of those will be built.
Municipalities don’t have to build the affordable housing units; they only have to zone for their construction. And a municipality’s obligation does not necessarily translate into that number of units because towns can get bonus credits for allowing certain types of low-cost housing, such as apartments for people with special needs, developments within a half mile of public transit stations and homes with more than three bedrooms. Working with a nonprofit developer to build 100% affordable buildings can minimize the number of new units built. But for-profit developments typically include market-rate units to help pay for the low-cost apartments, which would lead to a greater number of units.
Looking for downward adjustments
More than half the towns that filed accepted the DCA’s estimates. Nearly all of the rest suggested smaller housing obligations, with most coming after a municipality disputed the state’s analysis of the amount of vacant land that could be developed.
In a letter that accompanied its resolution, the mayor and committee members of Mendham Township in Morris County said their planner drafted a report that “concludes that there are zero acres of buildable land” in the township. It referred to errors made by DCA in calculating the township’s 120-unit prospective need and said land is constrained by the State Development and Redevelopment Plan, Highlands region rules and historic district designations. Officials representing the 18-square mile township instead offered a future obligation of 30 units.
Ultimately, all housing plans and ordinances or resolutions to implement them are required to be in place by March 15, 2026.
Union Beach in Monmouth County said in its filing that it could not accommodate the 45 units estimated by DCA for a host of reasons, the devastation from Superstorm Sandy in 2012 among them. It stated that DCA’s calculation “underscores the inherent irrationality of the methodology” and “fails to account for the efforts undertaken by the Borough in response to the devastation caused to the Borough by Hurricane Sandy.” It did not specifically agree to a prospective obligation, saying 10 units would be more reasonable but still difficult to accomplish.
Filing these resolutions with the state is just the start of the process. A number of other actions could change these numbers.
A challenging issue
First, anyone can challenge a town’s declared obligations through the end of February. Officials with the Fair Share Housing Center say they are considering whether to dispute some of the resolutions, particularly ones that certified housing needs lower than the ones recommended by the DCA. All cases are supposed to be resolved by March 31.
Next, municipalities must draft housing plans that include areas zoned for affordable housing and submit these to the state by June 30. Some municipalities in their resolutions justified lower obligations because they said the state incorrectly categorized vacant land as developable. Others are likely to reduce their obligations when they file their housing plans, which could further lower future obligations. But Fair Share Housing officials said a lack of vacant land doesn’t necessarily rule out a town’s ability to provide more housing, especially if there are empty offices, malls or other sites that could be repurposed.
“Notably that process also has to consider redevelopment potential and is not just a matter of looking at the DCA numbers and taking out land from that, and requires towns to put in place mechanisms such as overlay zoning to capture potential future redevelopment,” said Jag Davies, a Fair Share spokesman.
There’s an opportunity to challenge the municipal plans, as well.
Ultimately, all housing plans and ordinances or resolutions to implement them are required to be in place by March 15, 2026. Construction would proceed over the next decade and could depend, at least where nonprofit developers are involved, on the availability of funding.
The process is governed by the law sponsored and passed by Democrats with token Republican support last year and cannot be changed without legislative action. But all four major Republican gubernatorial candidates have said they oppose the law and pledged to change it in some way. While it would take legislative action to change the law, a new governor could take some actions to de-emphasize it.
— Map and graphics by Colleen O’Dea
