Public concern over COVID-19 continues to wane, but New Jersey residents are being infected and seriously sickened by the disease in higher numbers than at this time last year, or even mid-October 2020.
New daily COVID-19 diagnoses hovered just under 1,800 late last week, several hundred more than New Jersey reported at this point in 2021 and 2020, according to an NJ Spotlight News analysis of state data. COVID-19-related hospitalizations were up nearly 80% over this time last year, as of Friday, and trending higher. That’s nearly double what was reported during the first October under the pandemic, the data shows. An average of 10 New Jerseyans with COVID-19 died per day last week, which is close to the numbers seen in 2020 but down significantly since last year.
Experts warn that public data presents an incomplete picture, given the popularity of home-use COVID-19 tests, whose results are rarely reported to officials. This could mean more people are infected than we think, some said, which could contribute to the higher hospitalization rates. “We don’t have a good handle on what the case numbers really are,” said Stephanie Silvera, an epidemiologist and public health professor at Montclair State University. “And that makes it really difficult to plan for what our hospital capacity needs to be.”
‘This is not an individual health issue. This is a public health concern. Saying, “I’m OK with getting COVID” means “I’m OK with getting someone else sick as well.”’ — Stephanie Silvera, epidemiologist
Pandemic planning nationwide and in New Jersey has depended heavily on these metrics, with a particular focus on inpatient care numbers, which are used to gauge a health care system’s ability to respond to the current crisis and still meet other health care needs. NJ Spotlight News uses data provided by the state Department of Health to graph a number of important factors, including the rate of transmission, or RT, a measure of viral spread, as well as new infections by county and vaccination coverage.
The good news, the bad news
There is some good news in the numbers. COVID-19’s impact is a fraction of what it was early in the pandemic, before vaccines or treatment, and even last year when the omicron variant drove new cases to an all-time high. Daily COVID-19 diagnoses have been trending downward slightly since late September, and the state’s latest COVID-19 activity report, from mid-October, shows viral spread is at a medium, or yellow, level in 17 counties; Bergen, Cumberland, Hudson and Passaic counties are colored green for low levels of spread. The map is based on new case numbers, hospitalizations and inpatient bed capacity.
But other data provides a very different picture. A federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analysis of community transmission — calculated using new case numbers and the percent of COVID-19 tests that are positive — paints New Jersey all in red, for high spread, except for Salem County, which is orange for “substantial” transmission. The growing presence of new, more transmissible viral variants is also a big concern to Silvera, given how they can evade certain treatments like Evusheld, a shot for immunocompromised people who don’t get immune protection from COVID-19 vaccines.
‘(COVID-19 hospitalizations are) being driven by those over age 70. They have COVID, or COVID may be exacerbated by whatever the primary diagnosis is.’ — Cathy Bennett, New Jersey Hospital Association
Many care providers — nurses in particular — are suffering burnout, post-traumatic stress disorder and other conditions 32 months after COVID-19 erupted here, and some are leaving the field, exacerbating long-standing staffing shortages and further stressing the health care system. Silvera and others worry that affected hospitals — which are also caring for growing numbers of patients with influenza and other respiratory diseases — could quickly become overburdened if COVID-19 surges again as it has in Europe and elsewhere. The onset of winter and more family gatherings only add to this concern, she said.
Cathy Bennett, president and CEO of the New Jersey Hospital Association, said acute care facilities are also experiencing an uptick in flu and seasonal asthma cases. COVID-19 hospitalizations are really “being driven by those over age 70,” she said, patients who are more vulnerable in general and more likely to suffer chronic conditions and other ailments. “They have COVID, or COVID may be exacerbated by whatever the primary diagnosis is,” said Bennett, a former state health commissioner.
Both Bennett and Silvera said they are worried about the impact rising COVID-19 admissions could have on patients seeking treatment for other diseases. The initial lockdown period in 2020 led people to skip cancer screenings, and Bennett said hospitals saw an increase of cardiovascular concerns later that year, triggered in part by patients who avoided earlier care. “Anytime we have to put off treatment, that impacts people,” Silvera said.
Masks and booster shots
To stay safe, Silvera encourages people to wear masks when they are indoors with others — something she concedes she’s tired of doing herself — and to avoid crowds and increase ventilation whenever possible. Reducing COVID-19 risk does not mean we have to return to a lockdown, she stressed. “We have a toolbox now,” she said. “Covering your face is not being locked in your home.”
‘We don’t have a good handle on what the case numbers really are. And that makes it really difficult to plan for what our hospital capacity needs to be.’ — Stephanie Silvera, Montclair State University public health professor
The most important defense, experts agree, is for people to get the reformulated COVID-19 booster shot, which is designed to better protect against some new variants of the coronavirus. While the shots are “not great” at preventing infection, Silvera said they are “doing their job to prevent serious illness,” hospitalizations and deaths.
“It’s more important than ever that people get the bivalent vaccine, especially as we are moving indoors and the holidays are coming,” Bennett said.
Silvera agreed and encouraged people to think about others. “This is not an individual health issue,” she said. “This is a public health concern.” Vaccinations are critical not only to protect the individual, she said, but to keep others safe, noting that research has shown those with COVID-19 infect at least one other person, on average. “Saying, ‘I’m OK with getting COVID’ means ‘I’m OK with getting someone else sick as well,’” Silvera said.
Editor’s note: NJ Spotlight News has been charting and graphing COVID-19-related statistics for more than two years on its “Track COVID-19 in New Jersey” page, and will be moving from daily to weekly updates, starting today. The daily numbers will continue to be listed on NJ Spotlight News’ “LIVE UPDATES” page.
