COVID-19 numbers are trending downward across the country — and its impact is a fraction of what it was on hospitals, schools and communities last winter. But federal data show the coronavirus is still actively spreading throughout New Jersey, the Northeast and most counties nationwide.

The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 “community transmission” map colors all 21 New Jersey counties and the vast majority of New York, Pennsylvania and Delaware in red, indicating “high transmission.”

The map is based on a seven-day average of new case rates and positivity rates (the percentage of tests that come back positive). New Jersey and its three next-door neighbors had the nation’s highest positivity rates Thursday, between 10% and nearly 15%, according to the CDC.

The majority of Americans no longer consider the COVID-19 pandemic a priority. Less than one-third of those surveyed in late September listed it as an urgent election issue, according to a Monmouth University Poll — and new cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been declining for weeks. President Joe Biden declared the pandemic “over” on “60 Minutes,” the CBS broadcast news program last month.

But many public health experts — including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, and New Jersey Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli — stress that with hundreds still dying daily nationwide, including nearly five New Jerseyans on average, COVID-19 remains a threat. Persichilli described the outbreak as a “steady state” in mid-September.

“I think it would be a bit cavalier to say we are done,” Fauci told a panel hosted by the University of Southern California’s Annenberg Center for Health Journalism on COVID-19, monkeypox and emerging infectious diseases, earlier this week. “I don’t think we can say the end of COVID is in sight.”

Keeping guard up against COVID-19

The numbers are “going in the right direction,” Fauci said, “but we can’t let our guard down.” Experts also caution that the case numbers reported could be just the tip of the iceberg, since many people now use home-testing kits and are unlikely to report positive diagnoses to government trackers.

Fauci, who plans to retire in December as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, joined NJ Spotlight News Thursday on the “Chat Box with David Cruz” program.

New Jersey has lifted many of its COVID-19 public health requirements since this spring, with Gov. Phil Murphy ending the mask mandate for schools and daycare centers in March and eliminating the testing requirement for state workers, government contractors and education employees who refuse to be vaccinated in August. The federal government has also relaxed many pandemic-era measures, like face-covering requirements for airline travel.

Some experts, like Stephanie Silvera, a public health professor and epidemiologist at Montclair State University, would prefer government continue to play a more proactive role in addressing COVID-19. “The problem is that rather than have a strong public health voice strongly encouraging people to wear high-quality masks and avoid crowded indoor environments that lack high-quality ventilation, or large-scale investment in improving ventilation in K-12 schools, for example, it seems as if we’ve capitulated to the apathy and have thrown up our collective hands,” she said.

When asked about his own safety habits during the panel, Fauci said he prefers outdoor events, at which he generally does not wear a mask. He said he avoids indoor gatherings or attends for a short time only, with his face covered. Fauci also stressed the importance of getting vaccinated and keeping up with booster shots, something he said more Americans need to do.

Masking up for Thanksgiving?

Whether or not we will be wearing masks during holiday celebrations this fall and winter should depend largely on the level of COVID-19 spread in the community, Fauci said, as well as personal risk. “I hope not, but it is entirely conceivable,” he said, encouraging people to check the CDC maps to confirm disease levels in their county.

Nearly eight out of 10 New Jerseyans have received their initial COVID-19 immunizations, but the numbers lag among young children, the most recent group to be approved for the shots. But just 50% of resident here have received at least one booster dose and less than one-third have had two additional shots, according to CDC figures. Data for the new multistrain vaccine approved this fall is not available in the same format.

More information about COVID-19 vaccinations — including a search tool to find an immunization site nearby and resources to help schedule an appointment — are available online from the state health department.

Persichilli has praised New Jerseyans for their efforts to navigate the ongoing risk and keep themselves and their families safe. The health department urges people to consult weekly COVID-19 surveillance reports, which illustrate hospital and new case data collected by the CDC for its “community level” maps. Unlike the “community transmission” graphics designed to show viral spread, these maps largely reflect the availability of health care resources.

In the most recent surveillance report for New Jersey, dated Sept. 29, all northern counties are green — indicating low community concern — except for Bergen and Union, which are yellow, for medium COVID-19 impact. The southern counties are all yellow, save for Burlington and Cumberland, which are orange, indicating high viral impact.

Unlike the CDC’s “transmission” map, which currently paints all 21 counties red, the “community level” map and its corresponding DOH report use only three colors, with the highest threat being orange. Some experts have taken issue with the CDC’s efforts to focus the public on the “community level” illustrations, which paint a far less drastic picture than the “transmission” maps and may add to public complacency about the pandemic.

While vaccinations, masking and other simple actions remain important, Fauci said more drastic restrictions, like those seen in China, which has a “zero COVID” strategy that result in local or regional lockdowns don’t make sense for America. The goal should be to address hot spots and find ways to safely reopen society, he said.