Credit: (AP Photo/Michael Perez)

Party voters have made their picks, choosing the candidates who will represent them in the November elections, when New Jersey’s 12 members of the House of Representatives will top the ballot.

The congressional races will determine which party controls Congress for the remainder of President Joe Biden’s term, as the nation grapples with inflation, gun violence, structural racism and the existential threats brought by climate change.

Democrats in New Jersey hold 10 of the 12 seats but are expected to lose some, as is usual for midterm elections. But several analysts on election night and later this week said Democrats should be prepping to fight for all those seats, even the ones considered safe.

Tuesday’s races set up what is expected to become November’s hottest race in the state, a rematch between incumbent Democrat Tom Malinowski and Republican challenger Tom Kean in the 7th District. That contest has already drawn attention and money from the parties at the national level. But other races here are likely to see the same.

What clues — if any — can we draw from Tuesday’s elections and the struggles and fights already in the offing?

Turnout

Turnout for Tuesday’s primary was higher than in the 2018 midterms and significantly higher than 2010, the last time House races topped the ballot. But the numbers will tell the real tale: While the official turnout won’t be available for several days, only about 750,000 people are likely to have voted.

Party power

The county lines held. But they were not enough to propel every candidate to victory when different counties backed different candidates. In the 5th District, Nick De Gregorio got the Republican line in Bergen County, the largest chunk of the district, but still lost to Frank Pallotta who had party backing in Passaic and Sussex counties. In the 11th, dominated by Morris County, getting the Morris line did not help Tayfun Selen win, while having the line in Passaic helped propel Paul DeGroot to victory.

Surprising challenge

Chris Smith has represented New Jersey in Congress for more than 40 years. And he usually faces little or no opposition in his elections. This year a vocal conservative accepted former President Donald Trump’s challenge to Smith. Mike Crispi got help from several Trump allies, but not the former president. In the end Smith won, but with just under 58% of the vote. Crispi now promises to win in two years.

Rob, not Bob

Rob Menendez won the Democratic nomination for the U.S. House in the 8th District, where he’ll face Republican nominee Marcos Arroyo in November. Both are looking to take over retiring Democrat Albio Sires’ congressional seat. Menendez is the son of the U.S. senator and until now he was little known to the public and even to most in state political circles. In an election night interview with NJ Spotlight News, Menendez discounted critics who say he was handed his seat, pointing to his campaign’s work ethic.

Moderate moderation

All 11 incumbents won renomination. And most of the more conservative GOP challengers failed to win ballot spots. But many of them were pushing talking points in the primary that might not fly with a general election audience. Though it’s unclear now whether the nominees plan to moderate some of their primary stances to try to attract support from a broader voter base that includes members of both parties and many unaffiliated voters.