The general election campaign in New Jersey is underway, begun even before all the primary votes were counted. Candidates and the parties are trying to define the issues, particularly in swing districts where Democratic incumbents are expected to be forced to work to keep their seats.

All 11 incumbents on Tuesday’s ballot won renomination. And none of the most extreme candidates got on the ballot. That said, it’s unclear how much, if at all, the nominees plan to moderate some of their primary stances to try to attract support from a broader voter base that includes members of both parties and New Jersey’s many unaffiliated voters.

Republican Frank Pallotta got a second shot at taking on Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-5th) and did some of that course-correcting toward a moderate general election stance Wednesday. In a statement released shortly after midnight, Pallotta declared victory in his primary. On his campaign website, Pallotta highlights his desire to strengthen border security, protect Second Amendment gun rights and oppose critical race theory, which he alleges Democrats use to “brainwash” children. His post-election statement, however, mentions none of that, focusing more on pocketbook issues.

“We are done with politicians defunding the police and endangering American citizens,” said Pallotta, who lost to Gottheimer by 7.5 percentage points in 2020. “We are done with politicians who sold out our economy and supply chain to China. And we are done with those who have no solution to the inflation or gas price crises.”

Meanwhile, Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-7th) came out swinging Wednesday against Tom Kean Jr., who won his Republican primary over six other candidates with less than 46% of the vote. When Malinowski beat Kean by 1.2 percentage points two years ago, he focused on Kean’s record, rather than personal attacks. That changed Wednesday.

“Republican voters don’t like Tom Kean Jr. because they see his pandering as phony and unprincipled. MAGA voters don’t buy his tough guy ads and supplication to Trump while moderates think he’s a coward for trying,” Malinowski’s campaign said in a statement. “He’s a wealthy, legacy politician who hasn’t had a full time job in 25 years, and supports his family off of three trust funds established for him by his father. He believes he is entitled to a Congressional seat, but can’t explain what he will do with it.”

Malinowski vs. Kean

Malinowski and Kean are expected to be the premier matchup in the state’s 12 House races, an election to determine which party controls Congress for the remainder of President Biden’s term. New Jersey Democrats now hold 10 of those seats. But simply being a Democrat during these midterms may be a strike against many candidates because the party in control of the White House tends to lose seats in Congress.

Inflation, rising gas prices, the baby formula shortage and other economic woes could further hurt Democrats. However, progressive voters and others could be galvanized by pending U.S. Supreme Court rulings on abortion rights and guns.

Saladin Ambar, a political science professor at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute of Politics, said it’s hard to know what the mood of the electorate will be in the fall, given those issues, as well as the continuing war in Ukraine and the hearings on the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol scheduled for Thursday night.

Julie Roginsky: ‘No Democrat out there in New Jersey, with a few — very, very, very few — exceptions, really should take their races for granted this November…’

“The political context is so volatile and we have no way of knowing how moderate voters or even not so moderate voters are going to react to a Supreme Court ruling that may overturn Roe versus Wade,” Ambar, an NJ Spotlight News columnist, said Wednesday during the Morning After panel discussion held virtually and sponsored by Eagleton. “I’m really struck by the possibilities that remain out there that just are so volatile, that may control events beyond what politicians think they’ll have a hand in controlling themselves.”

Malinowski seems the most likely to lose his seat in the 7th District that stretches from Hunterdon and Warren counties across to Union County because last year’s redrawing of boundaries made his district more Republican. Six other districts favor Democrats while the other four — the 3rd in South Jersey and the 5th, 7th and 11th in the north — were staunchly Republican until recently.

Julie Roginsky, a longtime Democratic strategist, told NJ Spotlight News on Tuesday the party needs to worry about more than Malinowski.

‘A tough year for Democrats’

“It’s going to be a tough year for Democrats, let’s not kid ourselves,” she said. “No Democrat out there in New Jersey, with a few — very, very, very few — exceptions, really should take their races for granted this November, regardless of whether you’re Tom Malinowski or Frank Pallone.”

Pallone represents the 6th District that straddles Middlesex and Monmouth counties. He has been in Congress for 35 years and typically wins reelection with 60% of the vote or more.

Miles Coleman, associate editor of the national campaign rating website Sabato’s Crystal Ball, run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said that the primary results have not changed any of the ratings for New Jersey races: Malinowski’s leans Republican, while the 3rd, 5th and 11th lean Democratic.

“But if the national environment continues to deteriorate for Democrats, those are the types of seats that could move further onto the board,” he added.

Micah Rasmussen: ‘Let’s face it, these anti-establishment Republicans are probably not going to be appearing at Unity Day breakfasts anytime soon.’

Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, is more confident that some swing-district Democrats will be safe in November. He said that Rep. Mikie Sherrill is very well-liked in her 11th District, which was made more Democratic by redistricting. The victory by former Passaic County deputy prosecutor Paul DeGroot with a little less than 40% of the vote in the Republican primary does not bode well for his chances in November.

“We didn’t really have a serious strong challenger on the Republican side because this is seen as being a sacrificial lamb,” Cassino said.

Kean is already getting financial backing from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which announced Wednesday an initial expenditure of $1.25 million for advertising in the New York cable market.

But Republicans face hurdles, too

There are other problems that Republicans challenging incumbents in swing districts could face, as well.

“Mainstream Republicans won last night, but they certainly didn’t have a significant portion of the party behind them,” Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, said Wednesday. “Tom Kean didn’t even have a majority of his party behind him. The smaller of the state’s political parties cannot go into the general election divided, even with an edge on enthusiasm. So they have some work to do, and let’s face it, these anti-establishment Republicans are probably not going to be appearing at Unity Day breakfasts anytime soon. If the nominees struggle to win over renegade Republicans, they do have choices, whether it be to vote for third-party candidates or to stay home.”

The state Division of Elections has listed 34 independents or third-party candidates on the November ballot. Among them are a full slate of Libertarians and a handful of others whose slogans indicate they may be appealing to far-right Republicans who consider the GOP nominees in their districts to be “RINOs” — Republicans in name only.

New Jersey Democratic State Committee Chairman LeRoy J. Jones Jr. gave a preview of the Democrats’ general election themes in a statement calling Democrats to action.

“Just in recent weeks, the GOP has demonstrated that their views are incredibly out of touch with the people of New Jersey by pushing abortion bans, refusing the critical need for common sense gun safety legislation, and even failing to properly address the national baby formula crisis,” he said. “Once again the Republicans are proving that they would rather pander to extremists than present a concrete plan to actually lead our state and our nation forward … We cannot let extremism become normalized and we cannot let extremism win.”

Bob Hugin, chairman of the New Jersey Republican State Committee, gave his own preview to reporters Wednesday morning, telling a very different story. He cited the “reckless policies that have led to very difficult inflation issues that are causing people to choose between food and fuel, especially low income people.”

“The Democratic Party (was) clearly hijacked by the far left extreme and they don’t stand up for New Jerseyans … So those issues will become very important as we move forward into the general election in November,” Hugin said, adding Republicans will be well-financed in the fall races.

— Tanisha Bhat contributed to this story.