The 51 candidates seeking to represent the Democratic and Republican parties on the general election ballot for a dozen seats in the lower house of Congress are almost evenly split between the two parties, with 27 Democrats and 24 Republicans having filed by Monday’s deadline. Topping the ballot is the U.S. Senate seat, where Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez got a last-minute challenger and five Republicans filed. There are also four vacant state Assembly seats on the ballot, only one of which — the 36th District straddling Bergen and Passaic counties — is contested.
Political observers said the keen interest in the races is not surprising, given 2018 is a midterm election following a contentious presidential election that put into office a man who is very unpopular in New Jersey.
“We certainly seem to have more competition in this environment than would be expected in a typical midterm,” said Krista Jenkins, director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind opinion poll and a professor of political science.
Given the political activism of a number of groups in the state with names like Swing Left, Indivisible, and Change and the unpopularity of Donald Trump and the Republican agenda in New Jersey, Jenkins said, “This could be something pretty historic.”
Filling the open seats
Not surprisingly, the largest fields of candidates are in the two districts with open seats, the 2nd in South Jersey and 11th in the north. In both, the Republican incumbents, Frank LoBiondo and Rodney P. Frelinghuysen, respectively, recently announced their retirements. Frelinghuysen’s seat in what used to be considered a safely red district centered in Morris County is rated a tossup in three separate national ratings. LoBiondo’s is considered to be leaning Democratic by two of the ratings and a tossup by the third.
These are also the only districts where any of the primaries is likely to be competitive because no one candidate has received the support of all the county parties there, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Elsewhere, the organizational lines will rule the day,” he said.
In New Jersey, primaries tend to be poorly attended — the last time the U.S. Senate topped the balloting in 2014, just 13 percent of Democrats and 16 percent of Republicans voted. The people who cast ballots tend to be party stalwarts and most typically vote the party line.
Flipping from red to blue
Both the 2nd and 11th districts are also the ones most likely to flip from red to blue in November, said Brigid Harrison, a professor of political science and law at Montclair State University.
“Both districts are gerrymandered to be Republican seats, but demographic changes in the 2nd have made that district somewhat bluer than it was initially configured in 2011,” she said. “The 11th is also Republican, but these voters tend to be socially liberal and fiscally conservative. While Donald Trump won the district, he did so by less than one percent.”
In the 11th, five Democrats filed, as did five Republicans. Keeping track of the candidates on the Democratic side has been difficult, as the field once numbered seven, then dropped to four, then a last-minute entrant brought it up to five. Frelinghuysen would have had only token opposition, but his decision not to run has prompted a battle among Republicans who have had little time to raise money.
The 11th district GOP nomination battle is primarily between Assemblyman Jay Webber of Morris Plains and Antony Ghee of Totowa. Ghee, an investment banker and major in the Army Reserve, has gotten the party endorsements in Essex and Passaic counties. Republicans in Webber’s home county of Morris do not give a party line, which could leave him at a disadvantage. Also in the race are Patrick Allocco, a Convent Station concert promoter once jailed in Angola when the concert star did not show up to perform for the president; Peter Deneufville, chairman of the board of a Branchburg chemical company and an adjunct senior fellow with a Washington, D.C., think tank focused on security issues; and Martin Hewitt, an attorney and former Democrat who moved from East Brunswick to Morris Township to challenge Frelinghuysen. Hewitt is the only candidate who has reported any fundraising to the Federal Election Commission because he entered the race early. Hewitt had raised close to $8,700 and had $3,900 in the bank as of the end of 2017.
| Seat | Party | Candidate | Incumbent | Address |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | D | Robert Menendez | Yes | Harrison |
| Senate | D | Lisa Mccormick | Rahway | |
| Senate | R | Antonio N. Sabas | Irvington | |
| Senate | R | Bob Hugin | Summit | |
| Senate | R | Dana Wefer | Wood Ridge | |
| Senate | R | Brian Goldberg | Livingston | |
| Senate | R | Mac Truong | Jersey City | |
| 1st District | D | Robert Lee Carlson | Collingswood | |
| 1st District | D | Scot John Tomaszewski | Cherry Hill | |
| 1st District | D | Donald W. Norcross | Yes | Camden |
| 1st District | R | Paul E. Dilks | Turnersville | |
| 2nd District | D | Jeff Van Drew | Dennis | |
| 2nd District | D | Tanzira “Tanzie” Youngblood | Swedesboro | |
| 2nd District | D | William Cunningham | Vineland | |
| 2nd District | D | Nate Kleinman | Elmer | |
| 2nd District | R | Brian Fitzherbert | Ocean City | |
| 2nd District | R | Seth Grossman | Atlantic City | |
| 2nd District | R | Samuel Fiocchi | Vineland | |
| 2nd District | R | Robert D. Turkavage | Brigantine | |
| 2nd District | R | Hirsh Singh | Linwood | |
| 3rd District | D | Andy Kim | Marlton | |
| 3rd District | R | Martin B. Weber | Barnegat Twp. | |
| 3rd District | R | Tom Macarthur | Yes | Toms River |
| 4th District | D | Joshua Welle | Rumson | |
| 4th District | D | Jim Keady | Spring Lake | |
| 4th District | R | Christopher H. Smith | Yes | Hamilton |
| 5th District | D | Josh Gottheimer | Yes | Ridgewood |
| 5th District | R | Steven M. Lonegan | Hackensack | |
| 5th District | R | John J. McCann | Hackensack | |
| 6th District | D | Javahn Walker | Somerset | |
| 6th District | D | Frank Pallone Jr. | Yes | Long Branch |
| 6th District | R | Richard J. Pezzullo | Freehold | |
| 7th District | D | Peter Jacob | Pluckemin | |
| 7th District | D | Tom Malinowski | Rocky Hill | |
| 7th District | D | Jois Goutam | Summit | |
| 7th District | R | Raafat Barsoom | Annandale | |
| 7th District | R | Lindsay C. Brown | Clark | |
| 7th District | R | Leonard Lance | Yes | Lebanon |
| 8th District | D | Albio Sires | Yes | West New York |
| 8th District | R | John R. Muniz | Jersey City | |
| 9th District | D | William O. Henry | Paterson | |
| 9th District | D | Bill Pascrell Jr. | Yes | Paterson |
| 9th District | R | Eric Fisher | Fort Lee | |
| 10th District | D | Aaron Walter Fraser | Jersey City | |
| 10th District | D | Donald Payne Jr. | Yes | Newark |
| 10th District | R | Agha Khan | Jersey City | |
| 11th District | D | Mark Washburne | Mendham | |
| 11th District | D | Mikie Sherrill | Montclair | |
| 11th District | D | Tamara Harris | West Orange | |
| 11th District | D | Alison Heslin | Morristown | |
| 11th District | D | Mitchell Cobert | Morristown | |
| 11th District | R | Jay Webber | Parsippany | |
| 11th District | R | Patrick Allocco | Convent Station | |
| 11th District | R | Antony Ghee | Totowa | |
| 11th District | R | Martin Hewitt | Morristown | |
| 11th District | R | Peter Deneufville | Chatham | |
| 12th District | D | Bonnie Watson Coleman | Yes | Ewing |
| 12th District | R | Daryl Kipnis | Somerset |
Source: NJ Division of Elections
Candidate to beat
Among the Democrats, the candidate to beat is Mikie Sherrill. Sherrill is a former Navy pilot and former federal prosecutor from Montclair who has won the party line in all four counties. She also has the biggest warchest, with $822,000 on hand after having raised $1.2 million through December 31, 2017. The four other Democrats on the ballot are Tamara Harris, a family advocate from Verona, who had raised $567,000 and had $455,000 in the bank; Mitchell Cobert, a Morristown lawyer with $33,000 on hand; Mark Washburne, a professor of history and political science from Mendham; and Alison Heslin, a Morristown-born research scientist.
In the sprawling 2nd District that is the state’s southernmost and includes all or part of eight counties, four Democrats and five Republicans are running for their parties’ nods to face off in November and replace LoBiondo. State Sen. Jeff Van Drew of Cape May is considered the frontrunner, with about $80,000 in the bank that he raised quickly at the end of last year after LoBiondo announced his retirement. Tanzira “Tanzie” Youngblood, an educator from Woolwich, had gotten into the race earlier in a bid to unseat the incumbent and had about $10,700 on hand. The two other Democrats in the race are William Cunningham, a Vineland man who is a former staffer for U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, and Nate Kleinman, a farmer from Elmer and a political activist who ran for Congress in Pennsylvania in 2012.
On the Republican side, the field of five includes some political veterans. Seth Grossman is a former Atlantic County freeholder and lawyer who is representing an organization suing Atlantic City to try to force it to adopt a balanced budget. Samuel Fiocchi of Vineland is a former Assemblyman who had served with Van Drew when that district had split representation. Hirsh Singh is an Atlantic City native who has worked in the aerospace and defense industries and unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for governor last year. Also on the ballot are Brian Fitzherbert, who splits his time between Somers Point and Maryland, where he works for a company manufacturing air, sea, and weapons systems, and Robert Turkavage, a former Federal Bureau of Investigation agent living in Brigantine.
Keep an eye on the 7th
The other House race to watch is in the 7th District in Central Jersey, where Republican Rep. Leonard Lance’s usually safe seat has been rated a tossup by The Cook Political Report. His is one of 25 districts across the country with Republican representatives that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Several grassroots groups are working to flip the district and Lance’s offices face weekly protests over topics ranging from healthcare to immigration.
Since facing these protests and other actions by the groups, Lance, a five-term Congressman from Clinton Township, has moved a bit to the left. Unlike past years, when he faced strong opposition from conservatives, Lance’s primary opponents have mixed views. Lindsay Brown, of Clark, calls herself a progressive Republican who participated in the Women’s March the day after the Trump inauguration. Raafat Barsoom of Annandale is an emergency and trauma doctor at Hunterdon Medical Center who emigrated from Egypt and supports Trump. Lance has a sizeable money lead over his opponents, with $608,000 in the bank, compared with Brown’s $2,300 and nothing reported yet by Barsoom.
Earlier this year, seven Democrats were in the race, but the field has been winnowed down to three as organization support coalesced behind Tom Malinowski, an immigrant who served in the U.S. State Department under President Obama and lives in Rocky Hill. Malinowski had raised $528,000 with $446,000 in the bank at the end of 2018. Peter Jacob, a Union social worker who lost to Lance two years ago, had about $27,000 on hand. Goutam Jois, a lawyer, football coach, and standup comedian from Summit, raised $290,000 and had $259,000 in the bank.
Harrison said the fact that the Democratic field of candidates shrank in the 7th as well as the 11th is positive for those who remain in the contest.
“They won’t have to waste time, energy, and most importantly money trying to win a nomination, and for the political parties, it’s better to decide on a consensus candidate because when primaries get nasty, they have the tendency to damage the eventual nominee’s reputation,” she said.
There is a contest on either the Democratic or the Republican side in seven other districts, but none of them is expected to be very close. Only the 8th District in North Jersey represented by Democrat Albio Sires and the 12th in Central Jersey held by Democrat Bonnie Watson Coleman have no contested primaries.
After an earlier opponent dropped out, Menendez got a last-minute primary challenge from Lis McCormick, a community news media publisher from Rahway who had considered running for the Democratic gubernatorial nod last year. Despite Menendez’s ethics troubles, she likely faces an uphill battle given the Senator’s strong organizational support and $4.1 million in the bank.
While five Republicans have filed for the Senate nomination, wealthy pharmaceuticals executive Bob Hugin of Summit is considered the frontrunner. The other Republican candidates are Dana Wefer, a lawyer living in Wood-Ridge and former Democrat who had supported Sen. Bernie Sanders for president in 2016; Brian Goldberg, a construction company executive living in West Orange; Antonio N. Sabas, an Irvington man who ran unsuccessfully as an independent in 2014; and Mac Truong of Jersey City.
