Credit: Clarisa Diaz / WNYC

Newark is New Jersey’s largest city and it’s in a county that solidly voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Gubernatorial contender Phil Murphy, a Democrat, has led Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno in every poll by double digits since June’s primary. But those polls might not reflect the actual vote if turnout is lower than expected.

“My prediction is that it’ll be record low turnout for a governor’s race in New Jersey,” said Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“If it goes really low, and there’s a real skew in who turns out — like the urban vote doesn’t come out at all and these rural Trump voters start coming out in big numbers — then we could possibly see a surprise,” Murray said.

Read the full story on WNYC News, a content partner of NJ Spotlight.