Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll released findings today that show a 14 point lead for President Obama over GOP challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters in New Jersey. NJ Toady Managing Editor Mike Schneider spoke with Krista Jenkins, the new executive director of the FDU PublicMind Poll, about the latest findings.
In 2008, younger voters were a contributing factor in Barack Obama’s bid for the White House. The PublicMind poll shows that President Obama is still a favorite among likely voters under 34.
“These are people who have demonstrated history of past participation who expressed their intention to vote in November and who also have a great degree of interest in the campaign,” said Jenkins.
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Despite a majority of people believing that the country is on the wrong track, Jenkins said a “bare majority has a favorable opinion towards Mr. Obama’s job performance.”
According to Jenkins, what stood out from the poll results was the effect that unemployment had on voters’ preferences. The sample of respondents were split. One group was told the unemployment rate would increase by two tenths while other group was told that it would decrease.
“It turns out that there really were not statistically significant differences … that is to say that people who heard that unemployment is likely to increase had a small drop in their support for President Obama and vice versa with those who said unemployment is likely to decrease, and the same pattern but slightly reversed was for Mr. Romney.”
Polling began the night the Democratic National Convention ended — last Thursday, Sept. 6 through Sept. 12.
Many have said that former President Bill Clinton delivered the most memorable speech of the convention. Jenkins said it was difficult to tell if Clinton’s performance is in any way tied to the post-convention bump in the polls for Obama.
“Well there’s always context effects in any numbers and it’s very difficult to say with any certainty what is causing people to think what they’re thinking.”
Two more job reports are due before Election Day but Jenkins says it may not have much of an effect on voters.
“It seems that people believe that, at least for the short term, unemployment is going to stay where it is,” said Jenkins. “There’s going to be ups, there’s going to be downs, marginal increases and decreases, but at this point, it sounds as if there are other considerations in people’s minds going into what is ultimately shaping their preference in November.”