With tensions rising in the Middle East after the United States’ bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, NJ Spotlight News spoke with Michael Boyle, an associate professor of political science at Rutgers University, about what’s next.

“Both U.S. and Israeli intelligence have suggested that we’ve done substantial damage, probably set the facilities and the production of nuclear weapons three years back, something along those lines,” Boyle said of the bombing over the weekend.

“The real question is whether Iran was able to move some of their important material in advance of the strike,” he said. “So, for example, there is evidence to suggest that they pulled out some of the highly enriched uranium enough that they would be able to make a bomb. So to the larger question about whether we’ve actually eliminated Iran’s nuclear weapons program, my estimate is probably not.”

As for Iran’s retaliatory measures after the bombing, where its missiles targeted a U.S. base in Qatar, Boyle said the greatest risk will be to those abroad, particularly in military bases.

“The other possibility they have is [Iran] could close the Straits of Hormuz,” he said. “Now that’s very important from an oil shipping point of view. It will affect the world price of oil, and something about 20% of the world’s oil goes through the Straits of Hormuz that Iran essentially controls.”

Boyle also spoke to the prospect of Russia or China getting involved.

“I think both of them have a limited ability to shape this on the ground,” he said. “Russia is beleaguered in the Ukrainian war. China generally is reluctant to get involved in a shooting war in the Middle East. Both would prefer stability. Both would prefer the regime to survive. Both are worried about the consequences of this kind of escalating across the Middle East, but I don’t see them directly getting involved.”