A new Fairleigh Dickinson University survey of likely Democratic voters brought some good news for U.S. Rep. Andy Kim on Friday, showing him with an early lead in at least public opinion in his bid for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
Kim won the support of 32% of those surveyed, easily topping his chief challenger for the nomination, first lady Tammy Murphy, who drew support from about 20% of those surveyed. The embattled incumbent, U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, drew single digits as did a fourth candidate, labor activist Patricia Campos-Medina. Menendez, facing a federal indictment for corruption and bribery, has yet to announce whether he will seek reelection.
In the first independent poll of the election, the numbers came with significant uncertainty, as almost a third of those surveyed said they didn’t know who they’ll support in the primary. But there were other good signs for Kim. While Murphy scored a higher name-recognition, she was lower in her favorability rating than was Kim.
“I was really excited — strong double digit lead four months before Election Day,” said Kim, reacting to the poll. “My favorable numbers are through the roof. That was actually probably the strongest favorable numbers I’ve ever seen or had in my career, and that was statewide.”
Kim’s support, according to the poll, comes mostly from suburban, white liberals, while Murphy polled higher with more moderate Black and Hispanic Democrats. Dan Bryan, Murphy’s chief strategist, pointed to the positives for his candidate.
“We see the first lady putting together a really strong coalition of the type of voters that win Democratic primaries, largely women and voters of color,” he said. “That was great to see. I don’t think anyone is anywhere near the threshold where they should feel comfortable in this race. There’s a long race to go.”
Poll director Dan Cassino said there are some clear distinctions in support, and Murphy actually appears to suffer from her early and overwhelming support from Democratic leaders in the state, including obviously her husband, Gov. Phil Murphy.
“We have this big real revolt among liberal and progressive voters in New Jersey — the Democratic Party — who are saying, ‘no, we are against Tammy Murphy. Not because of anything she said, but because she has the party line.’ That’s a big shift.”
Rutgers analyst Ross Baker said the poll underscores how this isn’t your run-of-the-mill primary and instead will be a barn burner that will hang on voter motivation. He said Murphy’s support from the Democratic leaders will prove significant.
“Andy Kim clearly has visibility in the state,” Baker said. “But I think more importantly, I think he has people who are much more passionately devoted to him as a candidate.
“This is basically going to be a ground game, and there’s going be a lot of people, a lot of counties with walking-around money that have been given to them by the county chairs,” Baker said. “And in the end, it’ll turn out to be Tammy Murphy’s show.”
There was little encouraging in the poll for Menendez, who received a 68% disapproval rating.
