With the “county-line” ballot battle in the forefront, the primary race to fill Senate candidate U.S. Rep. Andy Kim’s House seat could be the one to watch.
So said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “I think more than any other district in the state, this is the one that’s getting the biggest reset from the office block ballot,” he said, referring to the new ballot design that is expected to replace the “county line”.
In this and races across the state, Democrats this June will likely confront the new ballot design that no longer lines up all the party leaders’ favorites, thanks to Kim’s successful lawsuit. That has sent seismic political shock-waves rocking candidates for Congress in Kim’s home 3rd District, where state Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Burlington) had scored the advantageous line in all three counties. That’s now changed.
“All of Herb Conaway’s advantages that he built up in winning those three lines — which were thought to be a prohibitive advantage for him — are all gone, and it is a great reset in that race now,” Rasmussen said. “It is anybody’s game.”
Conaway disagreed: “We are we have shown and demonstrated that we can win before engaging smaller groups of Democrats. I would expect to enjoy the same success as we move to a larger stage in the primary election.”
Conaway, a physician with 25 years in the Legislature, has drawn overwhelming support from county Democratic Committee members and racked up weighty endorsements. He said he believes in the county line and expressed reservations about the lawsuit to abolish it.
“I do have a concern that a measure like this might end up weakening the parties,” Conaway said. “And as I say, I do believe we need strong parties. I mean, you hear this in the commentary all the time.”
Democratic candidate Carol Murphy was pleased with the rulings so far: “All bets are off, and it’s now a competitive race.”
She previously ran for Assembly on the “county line” — alongside her former running-mate, Conaway — and she won. But as his opponent for Congress, she’s now a convert to the new office block ballot.
“Yes, I’ve been converted, and I appreciate what Andy Kim did,” she said. “Knowing that the line has fallen, it’s allowed me and along with my other running mates to be able to continue on to the primary to allow the people to make their choice.”
Murphy commissioned an internal poll of registered Democrats that she said showed Conaway leading with 22%, Murphy with 18%, and 49% undecided.
Yet ditching the county line also potentially opens up the field, a bit more for first-time candidates like civil rights attorney Joe Cohn, and seafood company co-owner Sarah Schoengood, a plaintiff in the county-line lawsuit.
“It’s evening the playing field in terms of just having fair placement on the ballot,” Schoengood said.
The new ballot could also create a bigger potential for spoilers as the race tightens, Rasmussen said. Yet he also said Conaway retains one clear advantage. As campaigns depend on resources, Conaway can still count on the Democratic party’s formidable get-out-the-vote support.
