In New Jersey, and across the nation, concerns about the economy and financial security appear to have played a key role in the decision-making process for voters in this year’s federal elections.

Lingering frustration with issues including inflation and the high cost of living, according to public opinion surveys, were consistently top of mind for many voters in an election that will return Republican Donald Trump to the White House following a strong showing in key battleground states, including neighboring Pennsylvania.

Whether Trump can deliver on his many economic promises, both for New Jersey and the nation, remains a key question.

Trump — who often stays at a golf club he owns in Bedminster — also performed better than expected in New Jersey. According to the latest vote tally, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, had a five percentage-point lead over Trump in a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a 38% to 24% margin.

Still, in the run-up to Election Day, it was the economy and fiscal issues that emerged as the most important concern for New Jersey voters, and especially for Republicans and independents, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll conducted during the final weeks of the election season.

Going with Trump

Moreover, more than half of the registered voters surveyed by Rutgers-Eagleton said they were having difficulties to some degree affording their rent or mortgage payments, echoing data tracked by the federal government that indicates housing costs remain high, even as the overall rate of annual inflation itself has slowed. Meanwhile, at the national level, a final NBC News poll said Trump had a double-digit lead over Harris on the key questions of who can better handle the economy and who can better address concerns about the cost of living.

The same poll also found more than two-thirds of the voters who were surveyed believed the country was headed in the wrong direction in the final stretch of an election season that saw both control of the White House and the Congress up for grabs.

The election results “make it clear that economic concerns are top of mind for voters across New Jersey and the nation,” said Tom Bracken, president and chief executive officer of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce.

“As we move forward, it is time for policymakers both here in New Jersey and at the federal level to come together to address these critical issues,” Bracken said.

The big question

Many economists  question Trump’s ability  to make good on his economic promises. For starters, many believe Trump’s pledge to enact significant tariffs on foreign-made goods could trigger yet another rise in inflation since importers are expected to pass along the added cost of a tariff directly to consumers.

That increase in inflation would come just as the Federal Reserve has begun to lower interest rates in response to the recent cooling of the pace of annual inflation.

Credit: (Ted Goldberg/NJ Spotlight News)

And Trump’s promise to institute a mass deportation of undocumented immigrants could also prove damaging to the economy at a time the nation’s gross domestic product has been expanding at a healthy clip, according to the latest federal data.

Such a policy could also prove to be even more consequential in New Jersey, which has a significant immigrant population. A recent study determined New Jersey’s undocumented immigrants contribute more than $1.3 billion annually in state and local taxes, helping fund important programs they often do not take advantage of personally due to their immigration status.

For his part, Gov. Phil Murphy, a second-term Democrat who won his own reelection in 2021 by a smaller margin than Harris won the state this week, has promised to put up a fight to protect the state’s immigrant population.

Murphy’s take

Speaking to reporters in Newark on Wednesday, Murphy also looked back on how his administration handled federal policies that had the potential to negatively impact New Jersey during Trump’s first four years in office.

“We worked effectively with him on areas where our values were shared [and] our common interests were shared,” Murphy said. “[But] we were incredibly, fiercely protective of our interests when they did not find common ground.”

Murphy also pointed to the possibility that Trump could be operating with a Republican Congress, at least during the first two years of his tenure.

“One question I think we all need to ask, is he actually going to do some of the stuff he said he was going to do?” Murphy said, citing things like mass deportations as an example.

‘It’s time to look in the mirror, and make sure [we’re] either changing substance, if it needs to be changed, or changing how we communicate what we stand for.’ — Gov. Phil Murphy

It is still too soon to say whether the GOP will be able to retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. While several contests across the country were too close to call coming out of Election Day, it appears likely.

In New Jersey, incumbent Republican U.S. Reps. Tom Kean Jr., Chris Smith and Jeff Van Drew all won reelection, while the state’s remaining seats in the Congress remained in Democratic control.

That included U.S. Rep. Andy Kim’s victory over Republican Curtis Bashaw in New Jersey’s U.S. Senate contest.

Meanwhile, Harris was holding on to a more than 200,000 vote lead over Trump in the latest tally of the presidential contest in New Jersey.

Indeed, the last time New Jersey voters supported a Republican candidate in a presidential election was 1988. And it’s been since 1972 that the state’s voters sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate. But since that 1972 election, New Jersey voters elected three Republican governors and gave all three a second term.

Knock-on effects?

Heading into the final weeks of the election season this year, Harris faced the challenge of convincing voters she was better situated to address their key economic concerns while running as a member of the incumbent administration.

And in New Jersey, nearly 70% of those polled by Rutgers-Eagleton indicated the country was on the wrong track, including up to 80% of people under the age of 50.

It’s unclear whether such a strong focus on economic concerns will extend into the next major statewide election in New Jersey, which is the 2025 gubernatorial contest. That could all depend on how things go during Trump’s first few months in office.

But Murphy, who cannot run for reelection under term limits written into the state Constitution, suggested his party should analyze both its policies and its messaging in the wake of this year’s election results.

“It’s time to look in the mirror, and make sure [we’re] either changing substance, if it needs to be changed, or changing how we communicate what we stand for,” Murphy said.

— Editor’s note: Tom Bracken of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce is on the board of trustees for NJ PBS.