Credit: (Brendan Smyth; NJ Spotlight News)
Editor’s note: This story was updated at 1:15 a.m., Nov. 8.
Despite Republican hopes of gaining control in Trenton, Democrats won a key Monmouth County race and were leading in several contested southern districts as Election Day wound down in New Jersey.
Turnout was relatively low as predicted, with no presidential or gubernatorial contest this year. State Senate and Assembly races topped the ballot, as all 120 seats were up for grabs in a legislature that has been led by Democrats for two decades.
“It looks like a pretty bad night for Republicans,” Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist and CEO of MAD Global Strategy Group, told NJ Spotlight News Tuesday night. “In fact they’re losing some of the gains they made two years ago.”
Democrats lost only one Senate seat, which was expected, in the 12th District in Central Jersey, but balanced that by retaking the Senate seat in South Jersey’s 3rd District, which they lost two years ago. As of 1:15 a.m., Democrats had flipped three seats in the Assembly. Six seats in three races, the 3rd, 8th and 38th, were too close to call.
A surprise early victory in Monmouth County’s 11th District, one of the most competitive races this season, gave Democrats a lift. Democratic incumbent Sen. Vin Gopal was declared the winner shortly after 9:30 p.m. with 60% of the vote against just under 40% for Republican challenger Steve Dnistrian. Assembly challengers Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul also were declared winners over Republican incumbents Marilyn Piperno and Kim Eulner.
In the 16th District, Democratic incumbent Sen. Andrew Zwicker was also declared a winner over Republican challenger Mike Pappas, with nearly 55% of the vote. Also declared victors were Zwicker’s running mates for Assembly, Roy Freiman and Mitchelle Drulis.
Gopal savors victory
Gopal said the 11th District victory reflected that the issues the Democrats championed resonated with voters, including those who were unaffiliated or members of the GOP. “We were the only team that put out a tax plan,” he said. “Our opposition did not once talk about that.”
Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky said Gopal is “just a phenomenal candidate and a phenomenal public official.”
Soon after the race was declared for Gopal, Gov. Phil Murphy and other Democratic leaders stopped by to congratulate the winners. “He is an extraordinary colleague and senator,” Murphy said of Gopal, adding, “and Luanne and Margie are as good as it gets.”
Experts had also predicted a tight election in the the 3rd District in Salem and parts of Cumberland and Gloucester counties, where Republican Sen. Ed Durr in 2021 defeated longtime Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney in a major upset. But former state Assemblyman John Burzichelli, the Democratic challenger, defeated Durr 53% to 47%. Burzichelli lost his seat when Durr ousted Sweeney two years ago. The Democratic Assembly candidates were leading, with 99% of the expected votes counted, but the race was too close to call.
Burzichelli told NJ Spotlight News shortly after 10 p.m. that he didn’t want to “jinx” things by calling it a victory but that Democratic results were looking good in all three counties. “The numbers have gone well for us,” Burzichelli said. “I certainly like our position at this moment.”
Attention was also focused on the 4th District, with parts of Atlantic, Cumberland and Gloucester counties, where the retirement of Democratic Sen. Fred Madden was thought to give the GOP an edge. But Democratic Assemblyman Paul Moriarty beat Republican Christopher Del Borrello 53% to 44% ton win the Senate seat. The Democratic Assembly candidates also won.
The three Assembly races not called on election night might not be decided until mail-in and provisional ballots are counted.
Republican ambitions
Going into the election, Democrats held the majority in each legislative house, with 25 out of the 40 seats in the Senate and 46 of the 80 seats in the Assembly. But with several Democratic incumbents not seeking reelection, Republicans faced better odds in a handful of districts in South and Central New Jersey.
While there were no widespread reports of problems at polling sites on Tuesday, two Bergen County Republican lawmakers raised concerns on social media about voting machine malfunctions in their districts.
Democrats still have the upper hand when it comes to their voter numbers. Of the 6.5 million registered voters in New Jersey, 39% are Democrats, 24% Republicans and 37% are unaffiliated, a potentially powerful swing block. Democrats outnumber GOP voters in 29 of the state’s 40 legislative districts, but unaffiliated voters have helped generate Republican wins in districts that were traditionally Democratic-leaning.
With no national or statewide race topping the ticket, turnout on Tuesday was expected to be low. Some 545,000 residents cast votes in advance, largely through mail-in ballots, 60% of which were from Democrats, 24% from Republicans and 16% from unaffiliated voters. In 2019, the last time legislative races were atop the ballot, 27% of New Jersey voters participated. As of end of day Monday, 8.4% of registrants had already voted.
Big spending
Limited public interest didn’t dampen campaign spending, however — at least not in several tight races. In the 11th District, Gopal and his colleagues had raised and spent more than $8.3 million by late October, the costliest race at that point.
Statewide, candidates in both parties had invested more than $30.6 million and independent groups had added another $17.4 million, according to state records from late October.
While there were no widespread reports of problems at polling sites on Tuesday, two Bergen County Republican lawmakers raised concerns on social media about voting machine malfunctions in their districts. But county election officials said problems — such as power failures and paper jams — were reported in only a handful of communities. The county said these were resolved without any voters having been disenfranchised.
“Voters are not familiar with the new machines,” said Bergen County Superintendent of Elections Debra M. Francica, who said this is the second general election for which these voting machines were deployed. “It’s a learning curve.”
Controversial issues
Candidates tried to bring voters to the polls with hot-button topics, with Democrats focused on abortion and Republicans on so-called parental rights.
While abortion rights are well protected in New Jersey, Democrats ran ads that warned electing Republicans would lead to “Texas-style abortion bans” here. Republicans warned that reelecting Democrats would limit parents’ influence over their children’s choices at school or how they express their gender identity.
Both parties also stretched the truth with some campaign messages, with Democrats exaggerating the benefits of certain tax cuts they’ve championed and Republicans overstating the potential impact of Gov. Phil Murphy’s climate-related policies. Republicans have also blasted Murphy’s efforts to create an offshore wind program, an initiative that suffered a major setback last week when Danish developer Ørsted pulled out of two massive projects here.
Voters’ main concerns
A Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Monday suggests that despite these partisan rallying cries, voters are focused on the usual meat-and-potatoes issues. When asked to name the most important issue on their minds, 40% named the economy, taxes or the cost of living.
More election coverage
Comprehensive election coverage is available at NJ Spotlight News’ elections page. It includes up-to-date results on all 120 legislative races.
NJ Spotlight News’ election night online and on-air coverage began at 8 p.m. with a special hourlong edition of Reporters Roundtable. Coverage continues with a special edition of NJ Spotlight News hosted by Briana Vannozzi. All coverage will be streamed live on MyNJPBS.org and on New Jersey PBS stations.
