It doesn’t take long to figure out that the latest proposal to expand fossil gas infrastructure in New Jersey makes zero sense.

It’s right there in the fourth line of the overview to Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line’s Regional Energy Access Project proposal: “The project supports the broader goal of meeting the growing regional demand for cost-effective, clean, and reliable natural gas.”

The problem? Regional demand for that gas is shrinking, not growing. And New Jersey’s admirable plan to phase out reliance on fossil fuels for heating and cooling by 2050 means demand will dry up in the next several decades, making expansion of infrastructure designed to last much longer than that folly.

If common sense prevails, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission will reject Transco’s plans to add on to its existing Pennsylvania pipeline and to build or expand compressor stations in West Deptford and Branchburg, adding more pollution to already overburdened communities.

But common sense hasn’t always prevailed at FERC. The commission has a history of greenlighting projects whenever developers can produce signed agreements from buyers such as gas utilities or gas-fired power plants. This is hardly the comprehensive analysis of public need and careful weighing of impacts on the environment, utility customers and landowners that FERC is supposed to undertake.

And yet, there’s reason to believe new leadership at FERC has modified its outlook and will take a harder look at the need for new infrastructure, including heeding the voices of states where the new infrastructure would deliver the gas — like New Jersey.

Analyzing pipeline need

Thanks to the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and the state Rate Counsel, FERC’s commissioners now have in their hands a study clearly showing New Jersey doesn’t need more gas pipeline capacity.

The gas capacity analysis that London Economics International undertook for the BPU states: “LEI’s main findings are that, through 2030, firm gas capacity can easily meet firm demand under normal winter weather conditions, in cases of colder-than-normal weather on a scale experienced in the past, and even in the case of a design day.” Gas utilities plan for the hypothetical worst case, called a “design day,” and assume that temperatures would be as cold as the coldest single day recorded over the previous several decades.

The translation: New Jersey has all the gas pipelines it needs — now and in the imaginable future.

“We don’t need additional pipelines going either into or bringing gas into New Jersey,” said Brian Lipman, director of the Division of Rate Counsel, the state agency looking out for consumer interests on utility-related matters. Lipman accurately summed up the situation when he said, “We’re concerned about overbuilding gas pipelines, especially during this transition period where we’re not really sure what role natural gas will be playing within the next five to 10 years.”

The facts are clear; the only question is what FERC will do with them. Will it continue to take the fossil fuel industry’s word or listen to the BPU and the Division of Rate Counsel, who are experts in New Jersey’s gas needs?

Why even consider expanding gas pipeline?

Some might wonder why New Jersey gas utilities would sign ironclad contracts to access a new pipeline when the BPU has concluded there’s no need for additional capacity.

The answer: New Jersey gas utilities can make money by purchasing gas pipeline capacity that will never be needed. Each year, there are a few cold spells when pipeline capacity becomes valuable and can be sold at high prices. If a gas utility contracts for more capacity than it needs to serve its customers, it can resell that capacity. New Jersey requires that gas utilities can keep a portion of that revenue. Customers foot the entire bill for costly new pipeline capacity, and the gas utility can make a profit while passing its costs along to customers.

Fortunately, the BPU and Rate Counsel are using evidence-based analyses and looking at the big picture to evaluate whether additional gas infrastructure is needed. By doing so, they will protect utility consumers from paying for unneeded, costly projects that are contrary to New Jersey’s clean-energy goals. Let’s hope FERC is listening.