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Spending by New Jersey legislative candidates and independent organizations trying to influence the election has exploded as campaigning draws to a close, with more than a third of that money being spent solely in two South Jersey districts.

Candidates for the 120 seats on the ballot spent $21.7 million through Oct. 19. Groups legally not affiliated with the candidates have laid out $12.4 million through Oct. 26. That puts the cost of this year’s races at more than $34 million so far, according to the latest analysis from the state Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC). That total is more than double the $14.6 million that ELEC reported had been spent just 16 days ago.

To date, $4 of every $10 spent has been in just two districts where representation is split between the parties.

Democrats are winning the money race in the 2nd District, which covers Atlantic City and 16 other Atlantic County municipalities, and in the 8th, encompassing parts of Atlantic, Burlington and Camden counties, both on their own and in the spending independent groups are doing to try to get them elected. Money is important, but not always determinative: Two years ago, Democratic candidates and a committee outspent Republicans in the 8th and in the southernmost 1st District and came up empty, in fact losing all three seats in the latter.

“Any number of candidates have spent millions, either that they raised or with a check they wrote themselves, and lost,” said Ben Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship. “It depends on how the money is spent and the dynamics of the race.”

In 2017, with Democrat Phil Murphy topping the ticket and Democrats sore over Hillary Clinton’s loss in the presidential race the year before, Democrats came within 400 votes of winning one of two Assembly seats in the 8th District. Two years later, in a low-turnout election without Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy at the top of the ticket, they lost again. The margin widened to about 1,000 votes despite a heavy investment in the race by a political action committee with ties to South Jersey Democratic power boss George Norcross.

Importance of 8th District

The 8th District is even more important to the Democrats this year, because they have to defend the Senate seat held by Dawn Addiego, a longtime Republican who switched parties in early 2019. She is facing a challenge from Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield, who won her seat two years ago. With no incumbents running for the Assembly seats, that race is hotly contested. So far, according to ELEC, the race has cost $6.7 million, with about 60% of that spent by independent committees. An analysis by NJ Spotlight News found the Democrats outspending the Republican candidates almost four-to-one and American Democratic Majority, a new committee affiliated with Norcross, laying out $3.8 million.

While registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 8th by about 8,000, they still make up only a third of all registered voters; those unaffiliated with either major party dominate. Dworkin said this is still considered a Republican district and it’s going to be “a very tough race to win” for the Democrats. Party turnout could make the difference.

The race in the 2nd District is also tight. A poll out earlier this week from the Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy gave the edge in the Senate race to Democrat Vincent Mazzeo, currently one of the district’s assemblymen, over Republican Vince Polistina. Polistina was chosen by a GOP convention to temporarily fill the seat Republican Chris Brown resigned earlier this year, but he has yet to be officially sworn in. Still, the race could be considered a tie, given Mazzeo holds a 7-point lead with 6% of voters still undecided and a polling margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%. The Assembly race is a dead heat.

“The 2nd is a true swing district, and voters there have sent legislative delegations with members of both parties to Trenton before,” said John Froonjian, executive director of the Hughes Center. Noting that Murphy leads his opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, by five points in the 2nd District, Froonjian added, “If Murphy’s and Mazzeo’s numbers hold up, the question is whether that would be enough to help the Democratic Assembly candidates across the line.”

Independent spending

Republican spending is more competitive in the 2nd than in the 8th, with the Democrats outspending the GOP by closer to two-to-one. But the Democrats have an even bigger boost when independent spending is considered. American Democratic Majority has also spent money in this race, but it’s Garden State Forward — a political committee affiliated with the state’s largest teachers union — that has been doing the most spending in support of the Democratic ticket, laying out some $3.5 million on this race. Almost as expensive as the 8th, the 2nd District has so far seen a total $6.6 million in candidate and independent spending, ELEC found.

“Never before have two legislative races topped $6 million in one election,” said Jeff Brindle, ELEC’s executive director.

Brindle noted that two-thirds of all the independent spending so far in this election has been in just those two districts, and their races rank among the 10 most expensive legislative races in state history.

Statewide, Democratic candidates have outspent Republicans by about three-to-one and had more than four times the cash on hand for the final stretch of the campaigns than did GOP candidates. Democrats currently control both houses of the Legislature: 25-15 in the Senate and 52-28 in the Assembly.