By Meteorologist John Cifelli
Another February weekend, another winter storm for New Jersey. Is it March yet? Just about, and almost on cue, the historic stretch of cold looks to finally be at an end. First, we have a wintry mix to contend with for Sunday afternoon and evening.
High pressure is in control tomorrow, before sliding northeast Saturday night in advance of an advancing wave of moisture more the product of upper level features than of an organized surface low. This is not much unlike the setup we had last Saturday, and thus my forecast isn’t too much of a deviation from how that played out.
Sunday we wake to cloud cover after another night of single digit cold overnight Saturday. By mid afternoon, snow will work across New Jersey from west to east, with precipitation enveloping all of New Jersey by dark. Then, warm air will work its way south to north, changing to snow to sleet, freezing rain or plain rain, depending on where exactly in New Jersey you are located. Gradually as the evening progresses, a surface low will develop. Model guidance is not in agreement of where that will be, but this will be crucial to determining who experiences the threat of freezing rain, and who will be safe with plain rain. The winds at the surface overnight Sunday will be dictated by the surface low placement. Those on the south/east side of the low track will deal with less icing, while those to the north and west will be at greater risk.
Right now I favor a more southerly track, with the low developing over southern New Jersey and sliding just south of Long Island. Given the fairly deep, cold air mass, the expected weakness of the developing low, and the best baroclinicity (tightest temperature gradient) over the coastal waters, this makes more sense to me at this time. Upper level jet stream pattern will also have a say in the low placement as well, which presents a possible contrarian argument to my current thinking. The forecast at this time is for all snow north of Route 80 and in west-central New Jersey, with snow, sleet and some freezing rain through the 202 corridor, with increasing threats of sleet and freezing and decreasing snow totals through Route 1, 195 and interior southern New Jersey. Further south, plain rain will be the main precipitation type after a few hours of wintry precipitation.
Accumulations:
A coating to two inches for Cape May, Cumberland, Atlantic and southern Ocean counties
One to three inches then light icing for the rest of southern New Jersey, Philadelphia, southern Mercer and southern Middlesex, Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn, southern Manhattan and the Bronx
Three to five inches then light icing for the northwest suburbs of Philly, the rest of New York City and interior north/central New Jersey
Four to six inches, mostly all snow with maybe some sleet for Sussex, Warren, northern Morris, Hunterdon and Passaic counties
Precipitation is wrapping up after midnight, which will give us a chance to clean up Monday morning. Expect delays, particularly if the freezing rain comes to fruition. In that case, we may need to wait until the sun is up and does its part in the ice/snow removal process before we hit the road. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s/low 40s on Monday, so like this past Sunday, road conditions will rapidly improve once the sun is up. By then, it will be March, of course!