By Meteorologist John Cifelli
It’s the same old song and dance today, if the song is from “Frozen” and you are dancing to something from the Nutcracker Suite. Winds are whipping the wind chills into the low single digits (and below zero) in a few places today, and we are going to continue to tumble tonight. New Jersey will make a run for freezing statewide, and winds will persist into tomorrow morning. The result is a wind chill advisory, as it will feel like 10 to 15 below zero when you leave for work or school tomorrow. I wouldn’t be shocked if some districts delayed because of the cold. It will be just that bad out there!
Winds relax by Friday evening, and the core of the cold air mass will be sliding east away from New Jersey. It’s a modest recovery, with overnight temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper single digits. Saturday, our next storm approaches and warmer air will lift northward over the mid-Atlantic coastal plain in advance of a weak, strung out wave of low pressure. Clouds and precipitation will follow, and since yesterday, this storm is trending colder/further east/snowier. Yesterday the surface track was modeled to be from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Today, the most likely track is from the southern Plains through Pennsylvania or even right through New Jersey. This is likely a result of models getting a better handle on the strength and depth of the cold air mass in place over the mid-Atlantic and northeast, as well as the strength of the next high pressure center sliding southeast from central Canada.
Saturday, expect snow to begin southwest to northeast, beginning around noon and reaching New York City by dark. Snow could fall moderate at times, and accumulations look likely. Unlike the last couple of snow events, this is the heavy, wet stuff that compacts and is harder to move. Eventually, as warm air spreads aloft first, and then at the surface, a period of sleet in southern New Jersey will precede a transition to plain rain overnight. Further north, freezing rain may be a concern during that transition phase. We will have to wait and see how the high-resolution models that are used to forecast for precipitation type look as we get a little bit closer. For now, snow to a wintry mix to plain rain looks like the best bet for central New Jersey, with snow hanging a little longer further north.
Accumulation totals will be produced tomorrow, but this looks like at least a one to three inches south/three to five inches north kind of situation, before ending as light rain or drizzle Sunday morning. The system never really strengthens enough to blast us with cold on the back side, but as strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, northerly winds will gradually usher in enough cold air to set the stage for potentially another winter storm six days or so from now.