By Meteorologist John Cifelli
Here we are, the aftermath. Perhaps meteorologists could expect a few days to lick wounds, mend spirits, rebuild trust, soul search, grab a drink?
Not so much! The pattern is as active as it has been all winter, with three chances for rain or snow in the next seven days. First comes tomorrow evening, as a clipper system zips past the northern Mid-Atlantic. Light snow (north) and rain (south) will fall for western New Jersey, with precipitation arriving a little later in the evening for those along the coast and near New York City. Those seeing rain in southern New Jersey can expect a changeover to a few flakes, with little accumulation. A coating to an inch looks likely for the 195 to 202 corridor, with up to two inches north of there into New York City. It’s a “fresher upper” kind of event, to keep the snow pack white. It’s over everywhere by the morning drive, except maybe a few leftover flakes near the city.
Just because the precipitation event is somewhat run of the mill doesn’t mean the weather isn’t impactful. Tonight, as high pressure centers over New Jersey and the last winds from our Monday night storm subside, we are going to take the bottom off of the thermometer. Expect widespread single digits tonight. You will wake up in South Jersey tomorrow and ask yourself, “How is it going to rain tonight?” when you feel the cold, but as the high pressure center slips northeast, winds will switch to the southwest drawing up marginal air that won’t support snowflakes. After the clipper scoots by it strengthens and stalls to our northeast, which will again send New Jersey into the blast chiller. Temperatures Friday night will rival the single digits tonight. Some subzero cold is possible for the north.
Saturday is still cold as the Polar Vortex has entered the picture over southern Canada. Sunday a storm approaches from the Midwest. We will wait and see what this means for New Jersey as the model guidance is all over the place. All possibilities are on the table, from a rainstorm to a snow event to nothing. A piece of energy in the southwest United States is somewhat stalled, but may eject into the southern Plains and phase with energy diving south from Canada. The models are struggling with how and when the southwest energy emerges, so it’s a waiting game until we get a little closer. The next three to four days will be cold and wintry, with Sunday night into Monday a big question mark.